Urgent Alert: its time to Hold ...
Hi everyone, and welcome to the Yellow Tunnel community, an aggressive short-term trading service dedicated to all classes of traders seeking to elevate their trading skills, market awareness and trading profits.
September is living up to its reputation as one of the most challenging months for the market to outperform. Seasonality sets in and end of the quarter repositioning and window dressing by professional fund managers creates a lot of cross-currents that stoke volatility and feed widespread price disruption.
The good news is the Fed continues to have the market’s back, even as the election cycle heats up, Congress balks at the further pandemic stimulus and tensions with China continue to simmer.
Industrial and materials stocks saw bullish rotation late last week, which is healthy for a couple of reasons. It demonstrates that money isn’t leaving the market and that confidence in economically sensitive sectors is a green flag for sustaining the bull trend. It also allows the tech-rich growth stocks an opportunity to consolidate six-month gains.
There is approximately $4.6 trillion sitting in money markets, up from the $3.6 trillion at the beginning of 2020. Here too, when so much cash is sitting on the sideline, there is a healthy level of pessimism that keeps the counterintuitive bid under the market. Seeing elevated skepticism when economic data is improving is the fuel of higher markets.
NEW WEEKLY POWER TRADER SERVICE
We recently launched our new Weekly Power Trader service that we at Yellow Tunnel are very excited about. Each week on Sunday, our expert traders use our AI Tools to provide the Top Bullish and Bearish Stocks, each with an Entry Price, Target Profit, and Stop Loss.
Also, note that the Weekly Power Trader signals are meant to last for 5-10 days as long as the vector confirms the same direction as the original pick, for stocks, we use a target gain of 2% and stop as 2% of the stock price.
Signals have averaged over 75% accuracy in my live trading since inception. Sometimes we hold position 2-5 days by using options (selling OTM BULLISH PUT spread) and targeting 1% target gain and 1% stop loss using stock price. Green color should be interpreted as a bullish signal and Red color as a bearish signal.
CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE
As I am discussing colleges with my high school senior, I begin to realize how much pressure is put on you at the good old age of seventeen. We are expected to decide what we will end up doing for the rest of our lives and hope that it can sustain our lifestyle, feed our future families, and make us happy.
In Japan, this is determined at the ripe age of thirteen. How lucky are those few that actually end up loving their jobs? How lucky was I that I was able to change paths and find something that I truly enjoy and love in my thirties. And how many never get to experience this type of self-satisfaction? What I would truly like, is for her to walk away from this conversation, realizing that she can fight for and achieve happiness in anything.
The technology sector (QQQ) once again pushed the market to a 50-day moving average. The bottoming process has started and the market should bounce back next week back to $342 level.
The TLT and the DXY continue to trade in the range and do not show any signs of the market reversal. The market dynamics support the reflationary trade where the value stocks will outperform the growth stocks. The value stocks will continue to outperform technology stocks and should provide SPY with short term support at $330-$340. Short term, the SPY overhead resistance is at $342 and will retest the $330 level probably next week if bulls are unable to push the SPY above $342 level.
The SPY new top is now set at $360 and potentially can be retested again only at the end of September or early October. SPY short-term resistance is at $342. I would be a buyer using any short-term corrections and use the dollar cost average to accumulate positions at this level. I will short the SPY once it approaches $360.
The SPY potentially can overshoot 50 days moving average next week and stage rebound toward the end of September, the start of October. Based on our models, the market (SPY) will trade in the range between $328 and $360 for the next 4 weeks.
How To Use Our Signals
Once you become a member, I encourage you to review our Live Trading Room recordings to see how I trade Aggressive Power Trader signals in my account. A snapshot of how we produce our Live Trading Room Sessions shows how we pack in a lot of information which can be accessed from whatever device your driving.
As a reminder, consider buying near the "BUY" level with a "10 days prediction" higher than the close price. In our live trading room, I usually hold a position for 1-2 days.
I allocate less than 5% of my portfolio if the position is being held overnight. On average, less than 1% of the portfolio should be at risk if you own a position for less than one day.
I enter a position at predicted LOW (BUY) price or yesterday's close price. My stop loss is 1% and my target gain is 1% of a stock price. I target 75% accuracy using these signals.
Few subscribers asked about Options trading using the signals provided. Please review live trading room recordings. I often sell OTM credit put spread using weekly options and collect 0.5% using stock price. For example, if stock is trading at $100, I would sell OTM put (strike less than 100) with option BID price close to $0.5.
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SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
One area that most traders don’t spend a lot of time on is managing volatility, especially when markets are subject to a lot of headline risk – such as the present. While the Fed does in fact have the back of the bulls, they can’t rescue the market from black swan events like natural disasters, massive power outages, pandemics, geopolitical turmoil, the post-election reaction, among other situations that can trigger a trap-door sell-off.
On the plus side, volatility can collapse when markets spike on sudden dovish Fed policy moves, peace treaties, trading accords, vaccine breakthroughs and major upside earnings surprises by market-leading stocks. One thing that most of us are keenly aware of is that stocks and the market itself fall a lot faster than they rise. Fear is considerably greater than greed and is why it’s so easy to give back a year’s worth of gains in a matter of days.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), sometimes referred to as the “fear gauge” is the best real-time measure of market sentiment. Prior to the March sell-off of this year, the VIX was comfortably bumping along the 12-20 range and demonstrating a very high level of trader and investor complacency. The VIX spiked to 85.47 at that selling climax on March 23 before making a protracted move lower over that past several months.
Today, the VIX trades around 27 after bottoming out in the low 20-range during the August-September rally phase. The three-day sell-off witnessed last week that took the Nasdaq down by 11% and the S&P lower by 7% pushed the VIX back up to 38. My point is that there is money to be made if volatility is traded properly on opportunistically.
Applying one of our AI tools, Stock Forecast Toolbox, we see how VIX is trading below our predicted support level of 29.11 and thus should be viewed with caution if looking to go long volatility in the near term.
TRADE OF THE WEEK
Within my trading services, I like to utilize trading in shares of the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX), which is highly correlated to the VIX. Here too, shares of VXX traded upwards of $80 at the nadir of the March sell-off.
Today, VXX shares trade at $26.20, which is interesting because the market hasn’t rebounded from the three-day plunge of last week. What this suggests is that traders expect the SPY and QQQ to hold their 50-day moving averages and trade higher off these key technical levels.
Our AI tools we apply to each trade are crucial to determining how we should view trades when they might appear cheap. The Seasonal Chart that is driven by a proprietary set of algorithms shows across the board “Lower” probability readings for VXX, meaning VXX could revisit the recent low of $25 or trade even lower over the next several weeks.
We want to respect these agnostic readings when they are flashing such a strong signal. It doesn’t necessarily mean we go out and short VXX, but it does provide a base case for buying the current market dip in selected trades generated from our AI-driven trading platform. To this point, we are very active with a slew of new trading strategies and will look to add the VXX to our trading list.
Our Weekly Power Trader advisory service takes positions in only blue-chip stocks and ETFs that are “green lighted” by my proprietary AI tools, and when confirmed, are added to the portfolio with my investment capital invested as well.
Trading Thoughts: consider buying near the "BUY" level with a "10 days prediction" higher than the close price. In our live trading room. I usually hold a position for 1-2 days and allocate no more than 5% of trading capital to any single trade.
I allocate less than 5% of my portfolio if I hold a position overnight. On average, less than 1% of the portfolio should be at risk if you hold a position less than one day. I personally look to enter a position at predicted LOW (BUY) price or yesterday's close price. For Weekly Power Trader, my stop loss for stocks is 2% and my target gain is 2%.. I target 75% accuracy using these signals.
Through the Weekly Power Trader service, we tie our Tradespoon Live Trading Room to manage the parameters of every trade. And we update our closed positions daily. The two platforms work seamlessly to provide our subscribers with the most robust trading experience available anywhere in the market today.
For those that have followed since inception, a $100,000 initial investment when backtested may have grown to over $1.7 million dollars. This stellar performance is made possible by being right on over 76% of all trades with an average profit of 24.80% per trade. This kind of performance stands alone among all other trading services.
Once you’ve become a member to any of our service – Weekly Power Trader or Aggressive Power Trader, I highly encourage you to view the instructional videos on how to best use your membership and participate in live weekly strategy roundtable workshops that are also archived in the event that they need to be viewed at a later time.
Traders seeking the most-timely directional trading strategies where 3 of every 4 trades are profitable should take action and come alongside the Yellow Tunnel community and make Weekly Power Trader and Aggressive Power Trader your daily trip to the bank.
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Go to our website at www.yellowtunnel.com and make the Weekly Power Trader service your default trading system where the AI that powers my all-world, always thinking platform.