🎯 Current Market Conditions + Why $MRNA Is a Buy

Reverse-Engineering a “Simple Fix”: Patience, Alignment, and a Stubborn Patio Door

It's funny how something as simple as a patio door lock can teach us a valuable lesson about life. The chapter "The Saad Truth about Happiness: 8 Secrets for Leading the Good Life" emphasizes the importance of variety in experiences. In my case, fixing the lock was a new experience, and it made me appreciate the value of trying new things.

The Fix

To fix the lock, I had to:

• Remove the old lock mechanism
• Clean the area
• Install the new lock, ensuring proper alignment
• Test the lock

It was a relatively straightforward process, but it required some patience and attention to detail.

Variety is Key

The idea behind variety is that it keeps life interesting and prevents stagnation. By trying new things, like fixing a patio door lock, we can discover new skills and gain a sense of accomplishment. Who knows, you might even find a new hobby!

Would you consider yourself a DIY enthusiast, or do you prefer calling in the pros for tasks like this? Have you ever fixed a patio door lock or something similar?

And honestly, that’s a pretty good way to frame the market right now, too: it’s not broken, but it is finicky, more dependent on small details than big stories. With indexes grinding near highs while rates, earnings reactions, and headline risk keep shifting the “alignment,” this is a week to stay patient, stay selective, and make sure your next move actually latches before you lean on it.

Recent Trade Review: RTX Corporation (RTX)

One of the best parts of trading with a real process is that you’re not relying on “gut feel” or headlines—you’re stacking evidence. That means using expert interpretation, disciplined risk-management tools, and models that pressure-test a trade idea against both macro (rates, risk appetite, sector rotation) and micro (price action, relative strength, timing) conditions. When those layers align, it doesn’t just generate an idea—it reinforces the conviction behind the buying decision.

Last week, I took a trade in RTX Corporation (RTX) through our DPT Services framework. The DPT model flagged RTX as a long opportunity, and we walked through the setup and execution inside the Live Trading Room—why the signal mattered, what the market backdrop was supporting, and how we approached the trade with defined risk parameters rather than chasing noise. If you want the full breakdown, you can watch last Tuesday’s Live Trading Room recording here!

This is also where the difference between free vs. paid becomes crystal clear. With the paid services, you’re not just getting general education or broad watchlists—you’re getting timely SMS alerts that help you act when it matters most: when to get in and when to get out, with far less lag and far more precision around execution.

Current Trading Landscape

The market spent this week doing what it’s been doing more and more often in this cycle: holding up at the index level while rotating aggressively underneath the surface. We saw multiple record-high moments earlier in the week, but the “how” mattered more than the “what.” This wasn’t a broad, easy melt-up—it was a selective bid driven by earnings resilience, a re-energized AI complex, and a constant tug-of-war with rates.

Early on, investors proved they were still willing to own risk even with institutional noise rising in the background. Headlines around Federal Reserve independence introduced a different kind of uncertainty—not “will growth slow,” but “will the policy framework stay credible.” Markets didn’t crater on it, but it added a subtle layer of caution that showed up in positioning and sector behavior rather than in one dramatic selloff. That kind of risk tends to leak into prices indirectly through the dollar, term premium, and ultimately how much investors are willing to pay for peak multiples.

Midweek, earnings gave the tape its backbone—especially from financials. Major banks generally delivered solid reports powered by higher fee income and strong trading activity, and loan growth improved across the group. The wrinkle was margins: falling rates can help demand, but they also compress profitability in ways the market won’t ignore when expectations are high. That “expectations problem” was the story in bank stocks: even when results were fine, the sector still sold off as investors looked for reasons to reduce exposure, especially with fresh policy overhangs. Trump’s comments about potentially capping credit card rates added a headline-level profitability threat for lenders, and when regulatory uncertainty creeps in, banks don’t get the benefit of the doubt. Even within the group, the nuance was telling—J.P. Morgan showed strong revenue and loan growth but didn’t clear the market’s most optimistic profit bar and the stock faded; Citi showed strength in banking growth and M&A activity but came in a touch light on profits; Bank of America and Wells Fargo posted strong profit and revenue growth with healthy fee performance. Net-net, analysts still sound constructive on the multi-year outlook for financials, but the market is signaling that volatility is likely to run higher than many investors want—because policy risk can change the rules quickly.

Thursday delivered the cleanest “reset” session of the week. After a brief skid, the Dow jumped by roughly 290 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed modestly higher. The bigger message was leadership: the Russell 2000 led again, extending a run that has now seen small caps beat the S&P 500 for about ten straight sessions, and then keep going into Friday. That’s not a trivial streak—it suggests improving breadth and a rotation into domestically geared names and laggards that finally have room to run if financial conditions don’t tighten too much. It’s a market that’s trying to broaden, not one that’s leaning exclusively on mega-caps to carry the index.

That leadership theme flowed right into the week’s most important style split: hardware versus software. Semiconductor exposure kept attracting capital while software remained soft—less a “risk-off” warning and more a preference shift. When investors feel like they’re paying up, they want the most direct line to demand. Chips, equipment, and infrastructure are the cleanest expression of the AI buildout, and this week reinforced that the market still believes the AI capital cycle is real and multi-year. Thursday’s momentum in AI-linked names looked poised to carry forward, and Friday validated that under the hood even as the indexes themselves went sideways.

By Friday, the major averages were basically flat-to-slightly higher—S&P 500 and Nasdaq up about a tenth of a percent, the Dow higher by roughly 40 points—yet the internal scorecard stayed active. About half the S&P 500 was green, and the “AI trade” showed both its power and its fragility: Super Micro Computer led the winners, while Constellation Energy and Vistra lagged, even though all three are widely viewed as AI-adjacent plays. The market wasn’t rejecting AI—it was discriminating within it. And again, the hardware/software split was loud: the iShares Semiconductor ETF gained about 1.5% while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF dropped roughly 0.8%. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 added another ~0.6%, extending that remarkable streak of small-cap leadership.

The other force that never really left the driver’s seat was rates. The bond market is still the referee, and this week it reminded everyone why. On Friday, the 10-year yield pushed through a closely watched 4.2% area—an important psychological line because yields had mostly stayed below it for months while the Treasury market felt almost listless, even amid geopolitical headlines. This time, traders interpreted the bond move as the market taking Trump more seriously—particularly around Fed leadership and the broader policy mix. When yields re-accelerate, it tightens conditions quickly, pressures duration-sensitive multiples, and makes the equity rally feel more “earned” than gifted. That’s why the same index level can feel calm while the tape feels jumpy: rates dictate how forgiving the market is allowed to be.

Commodity dynamics helped at the margin. Oil backing off—crude sliding toward the $60 area on signs tensions could cool—reduced the inflation impulse and made geopolitical risk feel “manageable” rather than “disruptive” for now. That matters when valuations already imply a fairly optimistic 2026: any relief on inflation-sensitive inputs gives equities breathing room, even if it simultaneously pressures energy stocks and changes leadership.

Trade policy added a more constructive, targeted tailwind to the AI ecosystem. The U.S.–Taiwan trade deal headline mattered less as a diplomatic story and more as an economic one: it reinforced plans for Taiwan Semiconductor to boost U.S. investment while lowering tariffs on Taiwanese imports that feed the U.S. AI supply chain. In a market that rewards tangible demand, anything that strengthens the infrastructure buildout—fabs, equipment, capacity—gets treated as supportive.

So the mood coming out of the week is cautiously optimistic, but with a stricter rulebook. Buyers are still present, but they’re quicker to rotate, more sensitive to rates, and less willing to “pay up” for anything that doesn’t have a direct demand line. Encouraging signs are real: small-cap leadership and pockets of industrial/materials strength point to broader participation and a healthier rally structure than a pure mega-cap squeeze. Caution signs are real too: software weakness, financials under policy pressure, and a bond market that refuses to settle into a tight range all suggest the path forward is unlikely to be a straight line.

My stance remains market-neutral here. Momentum has softened just enough that I don’t want to chase strength, and the biggest risk to equity stability hasn’t changed: yields staying higher for longer while labor-market and unemployment indicators continue to edge higher. In this environment, every new high has to be justified by durable earnings and stable inflation expectations.

From a roadmap perspective, I still see a path for SPY to press toward the 700–720 zone if earnings hold up and yields stay contained. But in the near term, 650–660 remains key support—technically and psychologically. Hold that zone on pullbacks and the “buyable dip” regime stays intact. Lose it while yields are rising and the market’s character can change fast—from upside capture to disciplined risk control.

NFLX Earnings Incoming - Our AI Analysis is Ready

Just a quick reminder: Netflix ($NFLX) reports earnings Tuesday, January 20 th after market close.

Our AI has been tracking the setup all week. The signal is clear.

If you want to be positioned for this earnings announcement (and the dozens of others coming right after), now's the time to join.

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Sector Spotlight

This week’s market action made one thing clear: investors still want upside, but they want it with a cleaner rulebook. When rates are jumpy, and policy headlines can change the tone in an afternoon, money doesn’t spread evenly—it concentrates in themes that feel either inevitable (hard AI demand) or mispriced (areas where expectations are still low and surprises matter). That’s exactly what a choppy, near-the-highs tape tends to produce: a rotation away from crowded consensus and toward pockets where idiosyncratic catalysts can do the heavy lifting.

You could see the psychology shift in real time. Hardware beat software again, small caps stayed stubbornly strong, and the market rewarded “real demand” over abstract narratives. At the same time, financials reminded everyone how quickly a sector can re-rate when policy risk enters the conversation. Add in a bond market that refuses to settle, and investors naturally start looking for the next place that can work even if the index stops being generous.

That search is increasingly pulling attention toward a group that’s been quietly rebuilding a bullish case: an arena where deal-making is thawing, the funding window is showing signs of reopening, and lower-rate expectations can translate into a meaningful valuation tailwind—especially for smaller, domestically oriented names. When confidence returns in increments (rather than all at once), it often shows up first in areas that were previously “left for dead,” where any improvement in sentiment creates an outsized price response.

The reveal here is biotech, and the cleanest way to express that theme is the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI). XBI matters in this specific market because it fits the current rotation profile: it’s a way to participate in a potential biotech rebound while also aligning with the broader small- and mid-cap leadership we’ve seen develop.

In a week where the market kept rewarding selective risk-taking, biotech offers something investors are craving right now: non-consensus upside with catalysts that aren’t dependent on the next CPI headline. That’s a powerful psychological draw when the tape feels “finicky”—and it’s why XBI is starting to look less like a forgotten corner and more like the next rotation candidate.

Trade of the Week: MRNA

If the sector story is about rotation into a mispriced opportunity, the single-name expression is about finding the company where sentiment has improved just enough for the market to re-engage—but not so much that the upside is already spent. In this market, that setup matters. With yields acting like the gatekeeper and leadership rotating quickly, the best trades are the ones that can win on their own fundamentals, not just on index momentum.

That’s why Moderna (MRNA) stands out as my Trade of the Week—and a name I’m looking to add. The company used the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference to reiterate a clearer financial framework: approximately $1.9B in 2025 revenue, a target of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, and a reduction in 2026 operating expenses to about $4.9B, part of a longer path toward cash breakeven. In other words, the message wasn’t hype—it was discipline: keep building the pipeline, but tighten the cost structure and improve durability.

That matters because it fits this week’s market psychology perfectly. Investors have been rewarding “hard” fundamentals—real demand, clearer visibility, and tangible execution—while punishing anything that feels like a promise without a plan. Moderna is also layering in identifiable catalysts: the company has submitted regulatory applications for its seasonal flu vaccine in multiple countries, with approvals expected to begin in 2026, and it has positioned 2026 as a catalyst-rich year across its respiratory franchise and pipeline.

Even better, the market’s reaction has been mixed—exactly the kind of tape that can create opportunity. The stock has seen sharp moves around updates and guidance as investors debate the post-pandemic transition, which is precisely where mispricing tends to form. And from a technical posture, recent momentum signals and trend improvements have strengthened the “setup” side of the equation as sentiment rebuilds.

The takeaway: XBI is about embracing the rotation—MRNA is about owning the cleanest expression of that rotation with a real plan behind it. In a market where investors are still optimistic but increasingly selective, biotech offers the kind of “earned upside” psychology prefers right now—and Moderna is the type of name that can turn that sector momentum into a focused, high-conviction trade.

This week, I’ll add Moderna (MRNA) to my portfolio!

And one more thing! Our track record speaks for itself from the standpoint of a Winning Trades Percentage, Average Return Per Trade, and Net Gain. Just take a look:

The consistent performance of our services is just incredible. My historical stellar performance is made possible by being right on 82.54% of all trades that I made, with an average profit of 39.48% per trade on our collective trade recommendations. To my knowledge, this trading performance is one-of-a-kind and stands alone in the marketplace for superior trading advice, where our numbers and results speak for themselves.

Whether you’re focused on real-time trade opportunities, advanced analysis, or developing a disciplined trading mindset, we’ve got the tools and insights to guide you. As the year unfolds, let's work together to make 2025 the most profitable year for your portfolio. But remember—successful investing starts with informed decisions. Always conduct thorough research and assess your risk tolerance before executing any trades.

Let’s make this year a transformative one for your financial growth!

One more thing, I've had the opportunity to take additional action with a great organization supporting families in Ukraine directly. Gate.org is a foundation where fundraising is held for specific families, allocating funds to multiple families currently living in Ukraine. I am on the board of directors for this great initiative and encourage everyone to check it out and donate if possible. The war in Ukraine is escalating, and families are being negatively impacted and displaced daily. To learn more about this initiative to help families, please see the link below:

 www.gate.org

Wishing you a week filled with resilience, growth, and prosperous opportunities!