TECH TRADERS LIVE AND DIE BY THE SWORD
Hi everyone and welcome to the Yellow Tunnel community, an aggressive short-term trading service dedicated to all classes of traders seeking to elevate their trading skills, market awareness and trading profits.
Arguably the most crowded trade in the past ten years has been in mega-cap tech stocks led by Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Inc. (MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), Netflix Inc. (NFLX), Facebook Inc. (FB) and Adobe Inc. (ADBE). There is also a slew of other excellent tech growth stocks that have also drawn a lot of attention like ServiceNow Inc. (NOW), Autodesk Inc. (ADSK), Twilio Inc. (TWLO), Shopify Inc. (SHOP), DocuSign Inc. (DOCU), Twilio Inc. (TWLO) and Spotify Inc. (SPOT) among others.
It’s been quite a party, but unlike the dot com “let’s party like it’s 1999” era, these notable companies have solid business models built on terrific top-line revenue generation as the world moves to the cloud and the Software As A Service (SaaS) subscription business model that is a secular trend with no signs of slowing.
After this round of “crowd dispersion” runs its course, there will be some fantastic buys for trading these stocks at steep discounts. And the fact that value stocks have picked up the slack while the tech sector consolidates is a very welcome development that is structurally positive for the intermediate bull trend to be sustained.
NEW WEEKLY POWER TRADER SERVICE
We recently launched our new Weekly Power Trader service that we at Yellow Tunnel are very excited about. Each week on Sunday, our expert traders use our AI Tools to provide the Top Bullish and Bearish Stocks, each with an Entry Price, Target Profit, and Stop Loss.
Also, note that the Weekly Power Trader signals last for 5-10 days as long as the vector confirms the same direction as the original pick. For stocks, we use a target gain of 2% and stop as 2% of the stock price.
Signals have averaged over 75% accuracy in my live trading since inception. Sometimes we hold position 2-5 days by using options (selling OTM BULLISH PUT spread) and targeting 1% target gain and 1% stop loss using stock price. Green color should be interpreted as a bullish signal and Red color as a bearish signal.
CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE
The growth stocks sold off, probably because they were overbought using any technical indicators invented in the past hundred years. The SPY was able to hold on to a crucial $323 level. The U.S. Dollar continued selling off and is now sitting at a critical support level (bullish for the emerging markets, industrials and commodities). Treasury prices continue to go higher (negative for equities).
My opinion has not changed. The short-term bottom is at $300 and potentially can be retested, most likely in August (put/call ratio is at the lowest point this year). SPY longer-term overhead resistance is at $340 and can be retested in the next 2-4 weeks. The market has ended July's correction phase, as long as SPY is trading above $320 level. At this point, I do not think the market will break $300 level as value stocks continue to outperform. Earnings season continues this week. Current correction will last only a few trading sessions.
I expect the market volatility and the two percent daily market moves to persist. SPY top is set at $340 and the market can potentially retest the all-time high level in the next 2-4 weeks. The market can overshoot support and resistance levels when VIX is elevated. My strategy is to buy 5-10% market corrections.
Based on our models, the market (SPY) will trade in the range between $300 and $340 or the next four weeks.
The rotation into value stocks is notable for a couple of reasons. First, the notion of the economy re-closing some businesses and activities due to a resurgence in the coronavirus is stoking defensive sentiment. Secondly, the month of August is historically a tough month for stock market performance. So, a natural move into value at this time makes sense both from a fundamental and technical standpoint.
The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLP) is easily the best way to trade the sector with several top holdings beginning to break out to the upside.
What’s nice about shares of XLP is the makeup of this ETF plays right into the whole COVID-19 theme of stocking up on household goods, shopping at big-box discount stores and being invested in multinational companies that are seeing margins expand due to a weak dollar. It’s like a triple play for being long the sector.
The good news is that this rotation is still in the early stages. From the 6-month chart below, the 20 and 50-day moving averages are on the cusp of trading up and through the 200-day m.a., putting in a “golden cross” that almost always ushers in a strong bullish upside move.
Applying my AI tools to the XLP trade, we get a very bullish forecast for the next ten days from our Stock Forecast Toolbox – making for what should be a very good trading vehicle to work with over the next two weeks - and I’ll be looking to utilize this bullish scenario for our Weekly Power Trader members with short-term trading strategies in the days ahead.
This fresh momentum for the value stocks will provide several high-probability opportunities. It also raises my confidence about where to direct our trading capital, utilizing our signals within our Weekly Power Trader advisory service.
TRADE OF THE WEEK
Of the top holdings within XLP, Church & Dwight Co. (CHD) jumps off the screen when applying our AI-driven tools to the stock. CHD develops, manufactures, and markets household, personal care, and specialty products in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products Division.
The company offers cat litters, carpet deodorization, laundry detergents, and baking soda, as well as other baking soda based products under the ARM & HAMMER brand; condoms, lubricants under the TROJAN brand; stain removers, cleaning solutions, laundry detergents, and bleach alternatives under the OXICLEAN brand; battery-operated and manual toothbrushes under the SPINBRUSH brand; home pregnancy and ovulation test kits under the FIRST RESPONSE brand; depilatories under the NAIR brand; oral analgesics under the ORAJEL brand; laundry detergents under the XTRA brand; gummy dietary supplements under the L'IL CRITTERS and VITAFUSION brands; dry shampoos under the BATISTE brand; water flossers and replacement showerheads under the WATERPIK brand; and hair removal products under the FLAWLESS brand.
Our Stock Forecast Toolbox gives the stock a Model Grade “A” rating with a near-term projected resistance up at $93.75, with the stock currently trading at $85.60. So, plenty of short-term upside potential.
At its current price, the stock broke out to a new all-time high this month, clearing $80 on rising volume – touching $86.95 before giving back just over a point. Not much, but any dip in this breakout stock deserves trader’s attention. Our Seasonal Chart also corroborates our short-term trading conviction, flashing “higher” for the next 20 days.
Our Weekly Power Trader advisory service takes positions in only blue-chip stocks and ETFs that are “green lighted” by my proprietary AI tools, and when confirmed, are added to the portfolio with my investment capital invested in each and every trade.
Trading Thoughts: consider buying near the "BUY" level with a "10 days prediction" higher than the close price. In our live trading room. I usually hold a position for 1-2 days and allocate no more than 5% of trading capital to any single trade.
I allocate less than 5% of my portfolio if I hold a position overnight. On average, less than 1% of the portfolio should be at risk if you hold a position less than one day. I personally look to enter a position at predicted LOW (BUY) price or yesterday's close price. For Weekly Power Trader, my stop loss for stocks is 2% and my target gain is 2%. I target 75% accuracy using these signals.
Through the Weekly Power Trader service, we tie our Tradespoon Live Trading Room to manage the parameters of every trade. And we update our closed positions daily. The two platforms work seamlessly to provide our subscribers with the most robust trading experience available anywhere in the market today.
For those that have followed since inception, a $100,000 initial investment when back tested may have grown to over 1.9 million dollars . This stellar performance is made possible by being right on every 3 out of 4 trades with an average profit of 24.82% per trade. My AI platform delivers consistent rich profits that are life-changing .
Once you’ve become a member to any of our service – Weekly Power Trader or Aggressive Power Trader, I highly encourage you to view the instructional videos on how to best use your membership and participate in live weekly strategy roundtable workshops that are also archived in the event that they need to be viewed at a later time.
With volatility having entered the tech sector where there is a lot of hot money and now more than at any time this year is when the power of AI is, in my view, crucial to filtering what trades have the highest percentage chance of winning.
Go to our website at www.yellowtunnel.com and make the Weekly Power Trader service your default trading system where the AI that powers my all-world, always thinking platform.