Trade UUP for More Bucks
The saga to rent out an apartment during the current economy continues. As mentioned last week, I am in the process of renting out my apartment in Florida. Having recently embarked to Florida, I noticed a shift in the dynamics of the real estate market. Demand seemed softer, with apartments staying on the market for longer durations. I even had to adjust the rental price downward, in order to attract tenants. However, despite the softer demand, there was still a noticeable influx of people from New York flocking to the Sunshine State. Many cited the ability to work remotely as one of the reasons for their migration.
While this experience highlighted the evolving nature of the real estate market, it also raised questions about broader implications. Following last week’s key inflation data, I continued monitoring key economic reports to see if there were any indicators for the current trends. The fire sales of Office Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) caught my attention. Could this be the next shoe to drop in the market? Is this an indicator of a larger market trend? Only time will tell.
As I delved into the realm of real estate, I couldn't help but continue to consider the implications of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on rental prices. With interest rates rising for an extended period, the CPI data is expected to trend downward, including dwelling costs. However, the rate of decline may not be fast enough to prompt a pivot by the Federal Reserve.
These instances serve as a reminder of the interconnectedness of most sectors within the economy and the widespread impact of inflation. From the microcosm of my rental apartment in Florida to the broader trends impacting Office REITs and CPI data, each piece contributes to the complex puzzle of the financial landscape. As we delve deeper into the stock market's positive momentum, ongoing debt-ceiling negotiations, and key earnings reports, it becomes imperative to remain vigilant about the underlying forces that shape our economy and the potential consequences they may carry for investors - more on that in our CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE section below.
Recent Trade Review
One of the recent trades that I’d like to bring to your attention was in $TJX (from Earnings Power Trader services), as discussed in Tuesday's recording of the live trading room, which can be accessed here:
https://yellowtunnel.com/live-trading-room-recordings#live-trading-room-recordings
Our Earnings Power Trader (EPT) model identified $TJX as an opportunity to collect extra premium due to elevated implied volatility, prompting us to take action and sell on Monday.
In this trade, we focused on selling out-of-the-money Puts (OTM) and aimed to collect a return of 0.5-1% by holding the position overnight. Our strategy was to look for liquid names with weekly options available. It's worth noting that approximately half of the volume of options traded in the market are weekly options or those with zero days to expiration (DTE).
Selling OTM puts and implementing call spreads is one of the most popular strategies during bear markets, as it allows traders to collect premium. By capitalizing on the heightened implied volatility, we were able to seize this opportunity in $TJX.
Keep in mind that engaging in options trading carries its own set of risks and complexities, and it is crucial to thoroughly understand the strategy before executing any trades. Proper risk management and a comprehensive analysis of market conditions are essential components for success in this realm.
The $TJX trade serves as a recent example of how our EPT model identifies potential opportunities to generate returns by leveraging market conditions and employing proven strategies.
CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE
The stock market began the week positively, driven by strong performances from technology stocks. Investors closely monitored ongoing debt-ceiling negotiations and awaited key earnings releases, providing insights into market direction. Although Friday saw selloffs, all three major U.S. indices remained on track to finish the week in the green.
This week, markets were primarily impacted by debt-ceiling talks and retail earnings, while inflation and recession talks remain active. Lawmakers worked to increase the nation's borrowing limit, currently at $31.4 trillion. Progress in debt-ceiling talks was crucial for investors, who sought stability and monitored market sentiment. President Biden expressed optimism about reaching a consensus with Republicans, further boosting market sentiment. This optimism supported markets until talks stalled on Friday.
Likewise, a Federal Reserve survey revealed concerning trends in the U.S. banking sector, with declining loan demand and tightening loan terms. This raised worries about a credit crunch and potential recession.
Wednesday saw stock gains as investors grew confident about a debt-ceiling agreement. Meta and Nvidia stocks climbed, and regional bank stocks rose following positive deposit growth news from Western Alliance Bancorp.
Thursday focused on earnings, with Walmart reporting strong results despite a challenging retail environment. Bath & Body Works also delivered impressive earnings and raised guidance. However, Target stock declined due to concerns over retail theft, while gold prices dipped slightly.
Thursday's positive shift came as investors responded to the possibility of a debt-ceiling deal vote in the House of Representatives next week. Meanwhile, cooler-than-expected jobs data and a declining economic index signaled potential recession risks.
On Friday, stocks fell as lawmakers paused debt-ceiling negotiations, increasing uncertainty about reaching a deal before the June 1 deadline. Additionally, Alibaba Group shares declined due to concerns over its cloud-computing business as reported in their latest earnings release.
Next week, market focus will remain on the retail industry and the economy, with earnings reports from Best Buy, Lowe's, Costco, Dollar Tree, Kohl's, and Gap offering further insights. With these levels in mind, I have identified my next portfolio addition. Let’s dissect this a bit further before diving in.
The volatility index is hovering around $18, while the ongoing round of significant earnings releases from companies like BIDU, HD, and WMT, along with retail data, are still driving market trends. Attention is centered on the SPY's resistance levels at $414 and $418, while support can be found at $408 and $404. Forecasts for the SPY indicate a period of sideways trading in the next 2-8 weeks, so it is advisable for readers to consider hedging their positions given the bearish market conditions. See $SPY Seasonal Chart:
The market remains in a sideways trend, but increased volatility is expected in the second half of the year. Retail data shows slight improvement but remains high. Factors such as fluctuating lumber prices impacting Home Depot and Target, fire sales in office REITs, weak Chinese data, and declining oil prices suggest a decelerating economy. Conversely, the AI sector is experiencing a surge, reflected in the prices of companies like Palantir, Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia following their earnings calls.
The debt ceiling conundrum is a pressing concern, with a potential default by June. Leading indicators continue to deteriorate, with initial claims consistently above 250,000. While there is a narrative of a soft landing supported by China's reopening and strong consumer indicators, the weakness in iShares China Large-Cap ETF and the office REIT fire sales raise doubts.
Market participants are growing frustrated with low volatility and a sideways market. In our live trading room, we employ market-neutral strategies like iron condors and covered calls. A top-building process is underway, with a pullback expected based on earnings reports and guidance. The 10-year yield is crucial to watch, and if it fails to hold at 3.2%-3.5%, it could signal the market top for the next few months.
During sell-offs, investors turn to gold, silver, the U.S. dollar, and treasuries. Risk management is crucial as recession odds increase. Small caps, banks, and industrials have seen marginal rebounds, but market support is narrow. It's a stock picker's market, and risk management is paramount.
Overall, the market is anticipated to face increased volatility, with potential testing of lows and downward revisions in revenue numbers. Risk management, expert opinions, and validated trade ideas become essential in navigating these conditions - which is exactly what we offer at YellowTunnel.
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SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
In the current market environment, there are indications that the dollar sector is gaining strength. With tightening conditions in the market and the upcoming debt ceiling discussions, it becomes crucial to adopt a strategic approach. Considering market-neutral strategies such as the iron condor can help navigate uncertain times - something we specialize in at YellowTunnel as seen in our latest trades and live trading room recordings. Specifically, there is one name that is catching my eye.
Looking at the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), we see that the dollar has steadily increased in the month of May but has taken a recent dip. While the current market indicators for this symbol, and dollar-related symbols alike, should continue to appreciate, the recent dip offers us a discounted entry price.
Amidst tightening conditions and ongoing debt ceiling discussions, the dollar has displayed resilience and continues to be viewed as a strong buy. The strength of the dollar is reinforced by multiple factors. The soft landing narrative often likened to a four-legged chair, relies on pillars such as China's reopening and low unemployment. However, these legs have shown some instability, which has shaken up the chair. On the other hand, the presence of strong consumer data and the growing influence of AI contribute to the dollar's positive outlook. Despite lingering talks of volatility and recession, the dollar is positioned favorably for growth during the summer months.
When reviewing my A.I. data I am seeing similar results with one symbol in particular, and one I am going to be adding to my portfolio.
TRADE OF THE WEEK - Trade UUP for More Bucks
The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ($UUP) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that seeks to track the performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies. The fund aims to provide investors with exposure to the U.S. dollar and its movements in the foreign exchange market. $UUP is designed to reflect the price changes of the underlying U.S. dollar index futures contracts, allowing investors to gain a broad view of the dollar's performance. As a widely traded ETF, $UUP offers investors a convenient way to access and trade the U.S. dollar without directly engaging in currency trading.
Looking at our A.I. forecast for UUP we see several encouraging signs. First of all, UUP has a model grade that puts it in the top 25% for accuracy within our data universe- indicating a more reliable forecast. As stated above, the dollar dipped to the end of the week which offers us a great entry price. The symbol's 52-week range of $27-$30 shows that the current price of $28.35 lands on the lower half of the symbol’s range and is a great value!
The 10-day forecast for UUP has another major positive signal that indicates to me the symbol is in a great spot for a bull run. See 10-Day Predicted Data:
UUP’s vector trend shows a one-directional and positive trend toward the upside. This type of consistent momentum is what I look for in reliable A.I. forecasts. Coupling the latest market levels and activity with our A.I. reading, I believe the dollar is going to be in a fantastic position to make gains - specifically UUP!
This week, I’ll be adding $UUP to my portfolio!
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Our track record speaks for itself from the standpoint of a Winning Trades Percentage, Average Return Per Trade, and Net Gain. Just take a look:
The consistent performance of our services is just incredible. My historical stellar performance is made possible by being right on 84.96% of all trades that I made, with an average profit of 37% per trade on our collective trade recommendations. To my knowledge, this trading performance is one-of-a-kind that stands alone in the marketplace for superior trading advice where our numbers and results speak for themselves.
Go to our website at www.yellowtunnel.com and make one of our services your default trading system where the AI that powers my all-world, the proprietary platform, can help you make 2023 the best trading year of your portfolio yet!
One more thing, I've had the opportunity to take additional action with a great organization supporting families in Ukraine directly. Gate.org is a foundation where fundraising is held for specific families, allocating funds to multiple families currently living in Ukraine. I am on the board of directors for this great initiative and encourage everyone to check it out and donate if possible. The war in Ukraine is escalating and families are being negatively impacted and displaced daily. To learn more about this initiative to help families, please see the link below:
Thank you for reading my blog. Let's have a great trading week!