When will $AAPL pain end? (Not soon enough)
Trading in the month of September is officially over, and the start of Q4 is upon us. As I left my trading desk on Friday, I was looking forward to where October would take us as inflation and the Fed remain at the forefront of the economic world. While away from my trading desk, I was looking forward to a different kind of destination - a trip overseas with my wife and some close friends!
My excitement is off the charts as we gear up for our eagerly awaited adventure to Turkey. The anticipation of exploring this incredible destination with close friends and my wife is simply electrifying. But beyond the sheer thrill of it all, this trip holds the promise of significant historical insight - and perhaps some unexpected financial ones as well!
Our journey will kick off in Istanbul, a city where history seeps from every cobblestone and the air is tinged with the echoes of bygone civilizations. From the iconic Hagia Sophia to the enchanting Blue Mosque, our days will be a delightful dance through centuries of human history.
Yet, the grandeur of Istanbul is just the beginning. We've got our sights set on experiencing a traditional Turkish hammam, where we'll indulge in the age-old art of relaxation, a luxury akin to the peace of mind one seeks in the world of finance.
The real adventure, however, lies in the skies above Cappadocia. A hot air balloon ride promises to take us on a breathtaking journey over otherworldly landscapes, an apt metaphor for the highs and lows of the stock market. As we drift above the whimsical rock formations, it's hard not to think about how trading can be a lot like navigating unpredictable winds.
We'll also be exploring the coastal gems of Izmir and Antalya, lounging on inclusive beach resorts, and tracing the shores of the Black Sea. Here, the beauty of nature parallels the ever-changing dynamics of the financial world—serene and picturesque one moment, turbulent and unpredictable the next.
But amidst all this excitement, there's a hidden lesson, one that's all too relevant to the world of finance: the importance of work-life balance.
Learning about history isn't just about exploring the past; it's about understanding the present and preparing for the future. Just as Istanbul has evolved through centuries, so too has the financial landscape, shaped by the ebb and flow of human endeavors.
Emotional intelligence plays a pivotal role, akin to monitoring your phone's battery life. Just as we must keep an eye on our devices to ensure they function optimally, traders must be acutely aware of their own limits and resources. And this is where our upcoming vacation becomes an invaluable asset.
Taking a break, enjoying quality time with loved ones, and immersing ourselves in history isn't a mere indulgence; it's a strategic move for traders. These moments of respite allow us to recharge, not just our spirits but also our capacity to make wise financial decisions.
So, as we stand on the brink of this incredible journey to Turkey, I invite you to reflect on your own path, both in the world of finance and in life. Consider the priceless lessons that history and a balanced existence can impart as we embark on this voyage where the realms of trading and the joys of living collide. And always remember, in trading, as in life, it's crucial to operate with a fully charged battery.
Recent Trade Review
As oil and energy sector news made waves this week, I decided to seize an opportunity that emerged in the market. I went long on Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock—a move that was guided by insights from our Dynamic Power Trader (DPT) services.
Exxon Mobil, a name that resonates throughout the energy sector, presented a compelling opportunity. The symbol, $XOM, came to my attention through our DPT services on Wednesday, which consistently provides us with actionable insights and trading recommendations. In fact, it was during one of our live trading room sessions this week (you can watch the recording here) that the DPT model flagged $XOM as a potential long opportunity.
Now, what sets our paid services apart from the free ones? One word: timing. In the fast-paced world of trading, timely execution can make all the difference. When you opt for our paid services, you gain access to SMS messages that notify you precisely when to enter and exit a trade. It's this kind of real-time, actionable information that can significantly impact your trading outcomes.
For those who might have missed it, you can catch up on our live trading room recordings here. These recordings not only provide insights into specific trades like the Exxon Mobil one but also offer valuable glimpses into the dynamics of trading and the strategies we employ to navigate the markets successfully.
So, what happened with our ExxonMobil trade? To find out, stay tuned for our next newsletter, where I'll delve into the details of this exciting venture. In the meantime, if you haven't already, consider exploring the benefits of our paid services, which offer you that crucial edge in timing and decision-making.
As always, remember that the world of trading is dynamic and ever-evolving. Informed decisions and the right resources can help you ride the waves of change and seize the opportunities that come your way. Stay tuned for more updates and insights in our upcoming newsletters!
CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE
As we bid farewell to the third quarter, we find ourselves in the midst of a financial narrative that's both gripping and turbulent. September, often considered the most challenging month of the year for equities, certainly lived up to its reputation. We'll dive into the latest developments that have been shaping the financial landscape and the markets as we know them.
One of the most crucial chapters in this unfolding saga revolves around inflation. The Federal Reserve's preferred metric for tracking price growth offers both reassurance and caution. After a summer setback, it appears that the battle against inflation is back on track. This news couldn't be timelier for the markets, as it alleviates anxieties surrounding the outlook for interest rates.
Despite the rocky terrain of September, there are glimmers of hope. The stock market is displaying signs of resilience, with data indicating that the rate of inflation is continuing to decline. This positive trend has sparked renewed optimism among investors.
The optimism is further reflected in the futures market, with Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures on the rise, while Nasdaq Composite futures leading the charge with the biggest gain. Circling back, let's take a closer look at the inflation front.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which filters out the volatile food and energy components, showed a year-over-year gain of 3.9% in August. This figure not only aligns with economists' expectations but also indicates a modest moderation from the previous month.
The Federal Reserve's ongoing efforts to raise interest rates are beginning to bear fruit. However, the persistence of inflationary pressures suggests that further rate hikes may still be on the horizon. This confluence of factors continues to cast a shadow of uncertainty over the financial landscape.
Another key economic report this week included, The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's report on the Tenth District manufacturing survey has revealed a contraction in manufacturing activity. Coupled with diminishing future expectations, this contraction underscores ongoing concerns about the industry's economic conditions.
Throughout this eventful week, several stocks have taken center stage. Notable among them is Nike (NKE), which saw a remarkable 10% surge in premarket trading. The athletic apparel company reported fiscal first-quarter profits that surpassed analysts' estimates, backed by a 10% reduction in inventories. Tesla (TSLA) finds itself in the spotlight, facing a lawsuit from the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. The lawsuit alleges racial harassment at Tesla's Fremont, California, plant. On another front, Tesla is set to reveal its third-quarter delivery figures, with analysts revising their estimates downward.
The automotive industry is on the edge as Ford (F), General Motors (GM), and Stellantis (STLA) grapple with the looming threat of additional strikes. The United Auto Workers have stated that more workers may join the strike if substantial progress isn't made in the ongoing talks with the companies. Bumble (BMBL) saw a 5.5% rise in premarket trading following an upgrade from Hold to Buy by Loop Capital, adding another layer of intrigue to the tech sector.
Anheuser-Busch InBev's Positive Turn: Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) enjoyed a surge after Bank of America upgraded its shares from Neutral to Buy and raised the price target. This upgrade resulted in a 4.3% rise in American depositary receipts of AB InBev (BUD). Carnival, the renowned cruise operator, is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter earnings. In anticipation, its shares rose by 3.1%. And finally, Nvidia (NVDA), a leader in AI-related semiconductor chips, had a rollercoaster in September. The stock experienced fluctuations, reflecting the broader uncertainties in the market.
Looking forward, the specter of rising Treasury yields has injected unease into the market. The 10-year Treasury yield's relentless climb, now standing at 4.65% compared to just over 3% in the spring, has ignited concerns that inflation may persist despite the Federal Reserve's attempts to raise short-term interest rates. This development has cast a shadow over tech companies, whose valuations hinge on the expectation of future earnings. The surge in long-dated bond yields has weighed heavily on tech stocks, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 still below their yearly peaks.
The energy sector has been marked by notable movements, with U.S. crude futures retreating by more than half of their previous day's gain, closing at $91.71 a barrel. This drop in oil prices has given rise to speculations about geopolitical discussions involving the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel, which may potentially encompass energy components. Should such an agreement materialize, it could lead to an uptick in Saudi crude imports to the U.S., with potential repercussions on crude oil prices and U.S. gasoline prices.
Investor focus remains firmly trained on the trajectory of the U.S. economy, especially in the wake of the Federal Reserve's signal for an extended period of higher interest rates. Simultaneously, the looming threat of a government shutdown adds another layer of risk for investors. All eyes are eagerly awaiting the release of September unemployment data and Services PMI data, as they hold the keys to unlocking crucial insights into economic trends.
Interest rates remain central to the unfolding narrative, as the demand for treasuries appears lackluster. This lack of demand, particularly from major players such as Japan and China, has the potential to drive rates even higher, potentially exerting further pressure on equity valuations.
Just as we mentioned last week, in a remarkable turn of events, the IPO market has sprung back to life. Companies like $CART and $ARM have witnessed surges of up to 30% on their first day of trading, before settling around their IPO prices. These fluctuations in IPO stocks serve as a barometer for risk appetite, signaling an uptick in market activity compared to the subdued conditions of the past two years.
As we enter Q4, I also want to shine a spotlight on Apple ($AAPL) as it finds itself at a critical juncture as its stock hovers in proximity to August lows. As most know, the way tech goes, and specifically Apple, is usually how the market goes. It's worth noting that it's not far from the 200-day moving average, historically a level where the market has often found support. Apple's performance will be closely monitored, as it holds the potential to provide insights into broader market sentiment.
In this dynamic trading landscape, I've made the strategic decision to shift towards a market-neutral stance, based on the encouraging economic data pointing to a low probability of a recession. While I do anticipate that the SPY rally may encounter resistance levels between $450 and $470, I also identify a support zone spanning $400 to $430 over the next few months. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Presently, there appears to be more room for downside movement, with the break of August lows already in motion. To gain a deeper understanding, I encourage you to examine the charts of IWM, KRE, and XRT, as they indicate that cyclical assets may soon breach their August lows. Although October may bring bouts of volatility, the anticipation of better-than-expected earnings and end-of-year seasonality should provide a sturdy foundation for the market, particularly in proximity to the 200-day moving average.
With these levels in mind and the potential for additional volatility, I have identified a specific symbol and a specific type of strategy to instill in the coming week. See Sector Spotlight and Trade of the Week Below!
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SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
Amidst the volatility and uncertainty of the financial markets, there are always hidden gems waiting to be uncovered. As we enter Q4, we're gearing up to delve into a sector that's been quietly biding its time, presenting an intriguing opportunity for astute investors. With inflation data at the forefront of investors’ minds and the latest guidance from the Fed behind us, this specific sector is sitting at a disadvantage which could trigger some sell-offs. Inverse ETFs are my go-to move for this type of market conditions.
ProShares Short QQQ ETF (PSQ) has been quietly gaining traction. PSQ is an inverse ETF, designed to provide investors with a tool to bet against the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index. As we've witnessed the Nasdaq facing a turbulent September, with concerns over rising interest rates and inflation weighing heavily on tech stocks, the stage is set for PSQ to shine.
PSQ aims to deliver the inverse daily performance of the Nasdaq-100 Index. In simpler terms, when the Nasdaq-100 goes down, PSQ goes up, making it a potential hedge against tech-sector downturns. With recent data indicating that the rate of inflation is continuing to decline, the allure of inverse ETFs like PSQ grows. As concerns over rising interest rates and their impact on tech stocks persist, PSQ could serve as a strategic addition to your portfolio.
Looking at the 10-day forecasted data for PSQ, the symbol is showing plenty of room for the upside as Nasdaq continues to see pressure following the latest market news and inflation reports. See PSQ’s 10-day Predicted Data from the Stock Forecast Toolbox:
Intrigued by the potential that PSQ offers in the current market climate? Keep a close eye on the Nasdaq-100 and watch for signals that could make this inverse ETF a compelling addition to your investment strategy. Furthermore, if PSQ is to pop, then it would be prudent to attach ourselves to a tech symbol to short in the upcoming days, and I think I have just the one!
TRADE OF THE WEEK: When will $AAPL pain end? (Not soon enough)
Apple Inc. ($AAPL) is a name that needs no introduction. As one of the world's most recognizable tech giants, it has consistently been at the forefront of innovation. However, the recent market turbulence has left Apple and its investors with some tough questions to answer as the tech giant sees pressure.
Apple Inc. has been a cornerstone of the technology sector, with a loyal fan base and a product ecosystem that extends from iPhones to MacBooks, watches, and plenty more. But in the midst of the current market turmoil, Apple has found itself facing headwinds.
In light of recent events, shorting Apple in the upcoming week might be a wise move- and based on our A.I. forecast for PSQ, it appears my A.I. agrees! Let’s dive into some of these reasons and additional forecasts.
The broader market challenges, including rising Treasury yields and inflationary pressures, have taken a toll on tech stocks. Apple, being a major player in the sector, is not immune to these headwinds. Apple's reliance on the tech sector makes it particularly susceptible to market shifts. As the Nasdaq-100 Index faces uncertainty, Apple's stock performance may mirror this trend. As we’ve stated, the way Apple goes so does the market, and the writing appears to be on the wall.
Technical charts indicate that Apple is hovering near its August lows, a critical level for investor sentiment. A breach of this support level could signify further downside. Trading below its 52-week high but far above its 52-week low, AAPL has plenty of room to the downside.
The sentiment surrounding tech stocks is still tinged with uncertainty. With the ongoing concerns over inflation and interest rates, Apple's stock could continue to face pressure - making it a great short candidate.
While Apple's storied history and track record of resilience are undeniable, the current market climate suggests that it might not be out of the woods just yet. Shorting Apple in the upcoming week could be a strategic move, aligning with the broader market dynamics outlined in our recent analysis.
This week, I’ll be shorting $AAPL in my portfolio!
As always, remember to conduct thorough research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
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One more thing, I've had the opportunity to take additional action with a great organization supporting families in Ukraine directly. Gate.org is a foundation where fundraising is held for specific families, allocating funds to multiple families currently living in Ukraine. I am on the board of directors for this great initiative and encourage everyone to check it out and donate if possible. The war in Ukraine is escalating and families are being negatively impacted and displaced daily. To learn more about this initiative to help families, please see the link below:
Wishing you a week filled with resilience, growth, and prosperous opportunities!