Last Chance to Invest in NVDA's Surge!
The Agony and the Ecstasy of Early Morning Swim Meets
Ugh, 7 am swim meets. Is there anything more torturous for a parent? I think not. As I write this, I'm still trying to shake off the lingering haze of sleep deprivation, my coffee-deprived brain stumbling over the keyboard. But, alas, I'm here to vent about the woes of early morning swim meets.
Why, oh why, do swim meets have to start at 7 am on weekends? Can't they see that this is the one time of the week when parents (well, at least this parent) get to sleep in and recharge? Alas, no. Instead, I'm jolted awake, stumbling out of bed to drag myself to the pool, where I'll spend the next few hours sitting, watching my son David compete.
The worst part? The knowledge that I'm not even getting any extra sleep credit for being an early riser. Nope, I'm just a zombie in a spectator's chair, mainlining coffee and cheering on my kid as he laps around the pool. It's a cruel fate, really.
But then, something magical happens. David touches the wall, looks up, and smiles. He's done with his event, and he's excited to share the experience with me. The fatigue melts away (well, maybe it's the caffeine), and I'm beaming with pride. The agony of the early wake-up call dissipates, replaced by the pure joy of watching my child succeed.
By 9 am, I'm usually feeling like a new person. The coffee has kicked in, and I'm basking in the glow of David's triumphs. It's a fleeting feeling, I know – one that'll wear off as soon as the next early morning swim meet rolls around – but for now, I'll take it.
So, to all the other parents out there suffering through early morning swim meets with me, I salute you. May our coffee be strong, our cheers be loud, and our kids' times be fast. And to the swim meet organizers, I have a humble request: can't we just start at 9 am? Pretty please?
But schedules rarely bend to our wishes—at the pool or in markets—so we show up, warm up, and run the plan anyway.
In markets, this week felt a lot like that 7 am heat: you don’t always feel ready, but the scoreboard moves whether you’ve warmed up or not. With the S&P finally sprinting past 6,800 on October 27 and the VIX easing to 15.79, the tape rewarded whoever had a plan in place before the whistle. The Fed’s 25 bp cut on October 29 and a 10-year near 3.98% didn’t give us certainty so much as permission to execute—especially in the same megacap/AI lanes that led the push. Psychology-wise, that’s the trap: when everything looks “Goldilocks,” discipline gets lazy, entries get sloppy, and we start chasing the next PR instead of swimming our race.
So I’m treating David’s 0.20-second improvement like portfolio basis points: small, intentional, repeatable. Pre-commit the rules the night before, size for the inevitable chop, and let compounding—not euphoria—do the heavy lifting. If we can cheer through the yawn at 7 am, we can also ignore the sugar high of record closes and stick to the process at 8:30. That’s how you convert early-wake agony into a routine—and a “new high” headline into durable returns.
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Current Trading Landscape
Markets extended to fresh highs this week as tariff détente headlines, a dovish-but-cautious Fed, and heavyweight tech earnings kept the risk-on tape intact. Volatility stayed contained around the high-teens, breadth improved into Friday’s close, and rates oscillated within a familiar band. Momentum is real, but it is skating over unresolved risks tied to policy, labor, and the path of interest rates.
Market Overview
The week opened with equities pressing record territory, led by semiconductors and AI-linked megacaps. The VIX hovered near 17, consistent with a constructive, trend-following backdrop. The 10-year Treasury yield remained volatile but largely held its 3.6% to 4.2% range; whenever yields drifted toward the lower end, multiples breathed and growth leadership reasserted. Into Friday afternoon, market breadth improved, with consumer discretionary, energy, communication services, and industrials pacing gains while defensives lagged.
Sentiment brightened on reports of progress in U.S.–China talks that suggested a framework to avoid sweeping tariff escalation and ease select export restrictions. The narrative did not settle long-term strategic frictions, but it lowered near-term headline risk. That was enough to lift cyclicals, semis, and global supply-chain proxies, setting the tone for a risk-friendly week.
The Federal Reserve cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, acknowledging softer labor dynamics while emphasizing uncertainty created by the government shutdown’s data gaps. Chair Powell signaled that a December cut is not a foregone conclusion, stressing the need for flexibility with incomplete information. Markets digested the message as “easier at the margin, but not on autopilot,” which tempered the most aggressive easing expectations without derailing the broader risk bid.
Earnings Drivers: AI Scale Keeps Paying
Mega-cap technology continued to do the heavy lifting. Amazon rallied on a clean beat and a renewed acceleration in AWS as AI workloads expanded. Microsoft remained firm on Azure momentum and clearer visibility into long-term AI monetization. Nvidia’s leadership persisted on the back of supercomputing and product-cycle headlines, reinforcing semiconductors as the market’s earnings engine. Together, these prints extended the AI-capex flywheel across chips, cloud, and infrastructure and helped keep the broader tape supported even when yields wobbled.
Technology and communication services led performance, industrials and materials benefited from a cooler tariff tone and stable rates, while utilities, staples, and health care lagged during the risk-on rotation. With volatility contained and earnings resilient, buyers had the upper hand, but positioning stayed sensitive to incremental macro headlines as the shutdown complicated the interpretation of incoming data.
Forward-Looking
Policy communication takes center stage next week as Fed officials update the path-of-cuts debate in the absence of a full data slate. The durability of the tariff truce remains a swing factor for cyclicals and semis. Most importantly, the AI spending cycle continues to anchor leadership; updates from hyperscalers and chipmakers will remain the key marginal driver for risk appetite and factor performance.
Tactically, I remain market-neutral. Momentum has resumed, but the risk that rates stay higher for longer while unemployment edges up argues for balance. Over the next few months, I see room for the SPY rally toward 680–700, with short-term support in the 620–640 zone. The longer-term uptrend is intact, yet euphoric gaps are fades for me, while orderly pullbacks in leaders are opportunities to add. The immediate checklist includes the shutdown’s duration, the market’s repricing of December policy odds, tariff-related headlines, and the cadence of AI-driven capex.
Bottom line: The tape is constructive, breadth is improving, and earnings leadership remains clear, but policy optionality and data uncertainty counsel discipline.
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Sector Spotlight
Every rally needs a motor. This week’s tape—fresh highs with volatility contained, yields oscillating inside a familiar band, and breadth improving into Friday—ran on one. As tariff tensions cooled and the Fed eased while guarding optionality, leadership reasserted where incremental demand is most visible: the infrastructure powering AI and high-performance computing. Cloud providers pointed to re-accelerating workloads, hyperscaler capex stayed front and center, and the market rewarded the companies that convert those dollars into computational throughput. When the 10-year drifted toward the lower end of its range, multiples in growth assets breathed, and this complex led from the front.
The appeal isn’t just narrative. The shutdown’s data gaps pushed investors to lean on corporate signals more than usual, and the signal was clear: AI adoption continues to pull forward spending across data centers, networking, and accelerated compute. That spending cascades through foundries, equipment, and component suppliers, creating a durable revenue stack less sensitive to week-to-week macro noise. Add a détente-like tone to tariff headlines and the supply chain backdrop looks less fragile than it did a month ago, further supporting risk appetite in the group.
Only now do we say the quiet part out loud: this is the semiconductor ecosystem, and the cleanest, most liquid way to own the theme remains $SMH. The ETF concentrates exposure in the dominant designers, manufacturers, and equipment makers at the heart of the AI-capex flywheel. In a market where leadership is narrow but persistent, $SMH captures the very names driving index-level upside while giving you diversified access to the upstream and downstream beneficiaries. Tactically, I like building or adding on orderly pullbacks when rates relax within the 3.6%–4.2% corridor and breadth firms—precisely the backdrop we saw develop through week’s end.
Trade of the Week
If $SMH is the vehicle, $NVDA is the engine. This week reinforced why. Mega-cap tech once again shouldered the earnings load, and the most powerful common thread was AI demand translating into cloud acceleration. Updates from hyperscalers pointed to stronger-than-feared cloud trajectories as AI workloads scale from pilots to production. That is directly supportive of NVIDIA’s core datacenter franchise, where each incremental workload requires more accelerated compute, higher-bandwidth memory, and faster interconnect—areas where NVIDIA’s platform remains the default choice.
Two additional currents strengthened the case. First, the policy mix: a 25 bp Fed cut lowered the temperature without promising a quick sequence of moves, which kept growth leadership intact whenever the 10-year eased within its range. That dynamic historically supports premium multiple names tied to visible secular spend. Second, product-cycle momentum: this week’s supercomputing and next-gen platform headlines helped confirm that the upgrade cadence remains brisk, reducing the risk of a near-term digestion phase just as demand broadens across enterprises and governments. Pair that with improving market breadth into Friday, and you have a tape that’s willing to reward sustained top-line visibility and operating leverage.
I’m adding $NVDA with the intent to scale on weakness rather than chase strength. My playbook is straightforward: initiate a core position, keep dry powder for adds on orderly pullbacks, and reassess if either yields break materially above the recent band or if hyperscaler capex guidance turns decisively lower. Absent those risk triggers, the week’s evidence—AI workloads re-accelerating, supportive rate backdrop on dips, and continued product leadership—argues that $NVDA remains primed for a strong run within the broader semiconductor uptrend.
This week, I’ll add $NVDA (Nvidia Corp.) to my portfolio!
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One more thing, I've had the opportunity to take additional action with a great organization supporting families in Ukraine directly. Gate.org is a foundation where fundraising is held for specific families, allocating funds to multiple families currently living in Ukraine. I am on the board of directors for this great initiative and encourage everyone to check it out and donate if possible. The war in Ukraine is escalating and families are being negatively impacted and displaced daily. To learn more about this initiative to help families, please see the link below:
Wishing you a week filled with resilience, growth, and prosperous opportunities!