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A Sizzling Father's Day Surprise
This Father's Day will be etched in my memory forever, thanks to my thoughtful kids. As I unwrapped the gift they had carefully chosen for me, my eyes widened with excitement. It was a Blackstone outdoor grill with griddle – exactly what I needed to relive some fond memories.
As I gazed at the grill, I was transported back to my teenage years. Growing up in a new country, I landed my first job at Woolf's, a famous hot dog joint in Chicago, when I was just 14. Working alongside seasoned cooks, I learned the art of grilling hot dogs and hamburgers to perfection. That experience not only taught me valuable skills but also sparked a passion for outdoor cooking.
Fast-forward to Father's Day, and here I was, firing up my new grill with the same enthusiasm I had as a teenager. The sizzle of hot dogs and burgers on the griddle brought back a flood of memories. I couldn't wait to cook a meal that I hadn't prepared since I was 14. The aroma of grilled goodness wafting from the kitchen was like a warm hug, filling my heart with joy.
A special shout-out to my daughter, Becki, who was instrumental in choosing this gift. Apparently, all her friends were using Blackstone grills to create viral TikTok videos. Who knew that my daughter's desire to follow in their footsteps would lead to such a wonderful Father's Day surprise?
As I cooked up a storm, I realized that this gift was more than just a grill – it was a key to unlocking cherished memories and creating new ones with my family. I'm grateful for the thoughtfulness of my kids and the opportunity to relive my passion for outdoor cooking.
If you're looking for a gift that'll ignite a spark in your dad's heart, consider a Blackstone outdoor grill with a griddle. Who knows? It might just become the catalyst for some unforgettable family moments.
The Verdict: Best. Father's Day. Ever!
And yet, beneath all the warmth and nostalgia of that moment, I was struck by something else: how easily we can overlook the power of memory and emotional anchoring when it comes to decision-making, especially in trading. Just like the smell of a grilled hot dog transported me to a specific time and place, the markets often stir up old habits and emotional patterns that can influence our actions without us even realizing it.
This week’s market behavior echoed that familiar rhythm—initial panic over rising oil prices and Middle East conflict quickly gave way to relief as news of a ceasefire emerged. Stocks rebounded sharply, almost as if the fear had never existed. At the same time, Fed Chair Powell's calm, measured tone about interest rate cuts sparked another wave of optimism, even though economic data—like slumping retail sales and production numbers—painted a more complex picture.
It’s easy to get swept up in those fast reversals, just like it's easy to believe a new grill will instantly replicate a perfect memory. But just as every meal needs attention and preparation, every market move demands a level-headed approach and self-awareness. Trading isn’t just about reacting to headlines—it's about recognizing when we’re being driven by emotion rather than strategy.
This week, the market cooked up a volatile blend of geopolitics, economic weakness, and policy-driven hope. For traders, the lesson is clear: don’t get burned chasing heat. Know your process, trust your discipline, and remember that the best outcomes—whether in the backyard or the market—come from keeping a cool head when the fire starts to rise.
RECENT TRADE REVIEW
One of the highlights from last week’s Dynamic Power Trader (DPT) service was a successful options trade on Cisco Systems (CSCO). This setup wasn’t chosen at random—it was identified by our DPT model, which scans for high-probability opportunities based on both macroeconomic trends and micro-level technical indicators.
In the case of CSCO, the model flagged it as a long opportunity heading into midweek, aligning with improving sentiment in the tech sector and resilience in industrials—both of which CSCO straddles. Our macro filters showed stabilizing bond yields and a stronger-than-expected performance in enterprise spending, while micro signals included rising accumulation volume and a key breakout above a short-term resistance level.
What made this trade actionable wasn't just the idea—it was the execution. For paid DPT members, real-time SMS alerts were sent out, signaling precise entry and exit points, helping members manage both risk and reward in real time. This is a key distinction from our free services: while free members may see the analysis after the fact, paid subscribers get the timely alerts necessary to act while the opportunity is still fresh.
For those who missed it, you can review the full breakdown of the CSCO trade—including the setup, risk management approach, and closing strategy—by watching last Wednesday’s Live Trading Room recording here:
👉 Watch the CSCO Trade Review – June 25 Live Trading Room
This trade was a great reminder of how combining expert opinion, risk-managed execution, and our proprietary A.I.-driven tools can transform good ideas into great outcomes.
CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE
Wall Street ended the week on a high note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hitting new all-time intraday highs and the Dow closing higher by more than 170 points on Friday. The S&P 500 has now gained over 3% this week, rebounding sharply from the brief June pullback. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, has fallen back into the mid-teens, reflecting a return to risk appetite and a general sense of investor calm heading into the quieter summer months.
But despite the strength in the indexes, a closer look reveals a market built more on fragile hope than firm conviction. This week's rally occurred alongside mixed economic data, conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve, lingering geopolitical tensions, and unresolved trade uncertainties. While price action suggests optimism, the underlying data tells a more complex and cautionary story.
We currently project SPY support in the 570 to 580 range, with resistance approaching the 600 to 620 level. With SPY now pressing up against the upper boundary of that range, the market appears poised for a potential breakout—but only if the right conditions materialize. If not, this rally could turn quickly. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
The week began with markets climbing a wall of worry. On Monday, major indexes opened in the green, but it was far from a typical risk-on environment. Equities were rising, but so was the VIX, signaling anxiety bubbling beneath the surface. The cause was a spike in geopolitical tension. Reports emerged that U.S. forces had carried out strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, while Israel launched additional operations, including a strike on Evin Prison. Oil prices jumped sharply, with Brent crude climbing above $77 a barrel, up from just $62 earlier in the month. At the same time, bond yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield dipping to 4.35%, a sign that investors were seeking safety amid the escalating headlines.
Adding to the uncertainty, the expiration of two key tariff pauses—one set for July 9 and another in August—raised concerns about a renewed trade conflict with China and its potential inflationary impact. This risk hovered over an already cautious market heading into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.
By midweek, sentiment began to shift. President Trump announced a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing fears of a broader regional conflict. That helped calm commodity markets, with oil prices retreating slightly and gold paring early gains. Stocks moved higher, led by artificial intelligence names and semiconductor shares, as Nvidia, Palantir, and Super Micro Computer extended their rallies. Tech regained its leadership role and lifted broader indexes, even as sector breadth remained narrow.
At the same time, Powell’s testimony struck a familiar tone. He reiterated that inflation remains somewhat elevated, while avoiding any firm commitment to a timeline for interest rate cuts. However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller offered a more dovish take, suggesting that a rate cut as soon as July might be appropriate given recent softening in labor market and retail data. The contrast between Powell and Waller created a split narrative within the Fed, feeding speculation that monetary policy may shift sooner than expected.
Economic data released during the week further complicated the picture. May retail sales fell 0.9 percent, the steepest drop of the year, signaling that consumer spending may be losing steam. First-quarter GDP was revised downward to a 0.5 percent contraction, deepening concerns about sluggish growth. Although durable goods orders surprised to the upside, with a 16.4 percent jump, analysts noted that much of that strength likely came from businesses frontloading inventory ahead of expected tariffs—not from sustained organic demand. Meanwhile, labor market data showed that while initial jobless claims dropped slightly, continuing claims rose to nearly 2 million, their highest level since 2021. That divergence suggests that laid-off workers are having a harder time finding new jobs, even as layoffs have not yet surged.
All of this set the stage for Friday’s closely watched inflation data. The Core PCE Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2 percent in May, slightly hotter than the expected 0.1 percent monthly increase. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE hit 2.7 percent, breaking a three-month streak of disinflation and complicating the argument for an immediate rate cut. Adding to the concern, consumer spending declined by 0.1 percent and personal income also fell—both missing forecasts and highlighting growing strain on household budgets.
Yet markets pressed higher. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new intraday highs on Friday, with the S&P poised to close above its previous record of 6,144.15. Investor sentiment was boosted by news that the United States and China had signed a trade agreement, raising hopes that further deals might be reached ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline. The narrative on Friday was one of renewed confidence: optimism that the Fed will remain patient, hope that the U.S. economy will avoid recession, and belief that earnings growth—particularly in tech—will justify current valuations.
But this optimism rests on shaky foundations. Inflation is no longer declining in a straight line. Consumers are clearly feeling pressure. Labor market weakness is beginning to surface. And despite the current ceasefire, the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved and could flare up again. Investors may be banking on a Goldilocks scenario—soft inflation, solid earnings, and stable geopolitics—but history shows how quickly sentiment can turn.
While SPY may still test the 600 to 620 range in the short term, the risk of a sharp move lower remains. If the July inflation data disappoints, if trade talks stall, or if earnings fall short, we could see a swift retest of support at 580 or below.
For now, we remain market-neutral. The trend is higher, but the conviction behind it is thin. This is a market that rewards selectivity, discipline, and risk-aware positioning. Whether the breakout sticks or fades will depend less on the headlines and more on what lies beneath them.
Some Market Seasons Are Predictable — The Real Edge Is Knowing What to Buy
There are times of the year when stocks tend to rise. That rhythm is as reliable as the seasons changing.
But here’s the catch: just knowing when the market is likely to go up doesn’t tell you which of the thousands of stocks will move, especially in today’s environment of sticky inflation, global instability, and shifting Fed policy.
That’s where I come in.
I’ll help you cut through the noise, narrow the field, and zero in on the exact opportunities that matter — before the rest of the market catches on.
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SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
In a market teetering near all-time highs yet surrounded by conflicting macro signals, identifying sectors with both momentum and resilience is more important than ever. While broader participation remains limited and caution is still warranted, one area of the market continues to quietly outperform, showing both technical strength and fundamental staying power. It's not just about following the headlines—it's about following the price action, capital flows, and underlying demand.
This week, our models are flagging the semiconductor sector as a high-conviction area for tactical exposure. The recent surge in artificial intelligence-related demand, combined with favorable sector rotation and robust earnings momentum, has created a foundation for continued outperformance—even in the face of macro uncertainty.
A key way to express this view is through SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF). SMH has not only reclaimed its May highs but is now trading above key short-term resistance levels. The ETF tracks a basket of industry leaders, giving exposure to the broad semiconductor ecosystem that powers everything from cloud computing to electric vehicles to AI training infrastructure.
While many sectors have shown fragility—either from weak economic data or tariff sensitivity—semiconductors have remained notably insulated. That’s in part because demand for computing power tied to machine learning and AI infrastructure has remained relentless. On a technical basis, SMH has continued to build higher lows and has reclaimed upward momentum after the early June pullback. Our AI model confirms this strength, with a bullish signal triggered midweek and support now firmly held near the $245 level. With market sentiment still leaning cautious and most rallies tied to a narrow group of names, semiconductors offer not just relative strength, but leadership.
With breadth still lacking in broader indexes, this is not a market to chase everything. But semiconductors continue to pass the test—technically, fundamentally, and algorithmically.
TRADE OF THE WEEK
Expanding on our sector view, this week’s featured trade is Nvidia (NVDA)—a name that has become the cornerstone of both market optimism and real growth in the AI space. Nvidia closed last week at new record highs, holding above the $155 level with a market cap of $3.78 trillion. It has now closed higher for four sessions in a row, firmly reasserting its leadership role after consolidating earlier in the month.
This isn’t just a story of momentum—it’s a story of validation. Our AI models flagged NVDA midweek as a long opportunity based on a convergence of technical resilience, institutional accumulation, and broader sentiment returning to mega-cap AI. The name continues to lead in terms of revenue growth and pricing power, and it benefits from every tailwind currently shaping tech: AI demand, data center expansion, GPU upgrades, and geopolitically sensitive infrastructure investment.
From a market sentiment perspective, the timing couldn’t be more aligned. While broader economic data remains mixed and inflation reaccelerated slightly in Friday’s Core PCE report, investors are once again leaning into names they believe can deliver earnings growth regardless of macro conditions. NVDA fits that profile perfectly. The Fed may still be in a holding pattern, but AI demand isn’t waiting for rate cuts.
Technically, Nvidia has reentered breakout territory and is supported by strong buying interest above the $150–$152 range. The VIX retreating into the mid-teens adds to the favorable environment for high-beta tech to continue pushing higher, and our model readings suggest NVDA could be setting up for a move toward $165–$170 in the coming weeks if current conditions hold.
This isn’t about chasing hype—it’s about following the capital. As earnings season approaches and markets hover near highs, Nvidia remains one of the few names where conviction, volume, and fundamentals are aligned. In a market where much is uncertain, NVDA continues to be one of the few constants.
This week, I’ll add Nvidia (NVDA) to my portfolio!
And one more thing! Our track record speaks for itself from the standpoint of a Winning Trades Percentage, Average Return Per Trade, and Net Gain. Just take a look:
The consistent performance of our services is just incredible. My historical stellar performance is made possible by being right on 82.92% of all trades that I made, with an average profit of 38.42% per trade on our collective trade recommendations. To my knowledge, this trading performance is one-of-a-kind and stands alone in the marketplace for superior trading advice where our numbers and results speak for themselves.
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Whether you’re focused on real-time trade opportunities, advanced analysis, or developing a disciplined trading mindset, we’ve got the tools and insights to guide you. As the year unfolds, let's work together to make 2025 the most profitable year for your portfolio. But remember—successful investing starts with informed decisions. Always conduct thorough research and assess your risk tolerance before executing any trades.
Let’s make this year a transformative one for your financial growth!
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Wishing you a week filled with resilience, growth, and prosperous opportunities!