Investment Opportunity: Buy the Dip: Seagate ($STX) Stock
My First Time on the Golf Course: A Father-Son Adventure
I recently had the opportunity to try my hand at golf for the very first time, and I have to say, it was quite the experience. My 10-year-old son David has been training for a couple of years and attending golf camps, so I figured it was time for me to join him on the range. Little did I know, I was in for a crash course in golf terminology.
David couldn't help but tease me about my lack of knowledge, chuckling at my confusion over terms like "driver" and other golf lingo. Determined to catch up, I borrowed some old golf clubs from my brother-in-law, an expert golfer, and headed to the driving range with David.
My First Few Swings
Let's just say it wasn't pretty. I struggled to even make contact with the ball, let alone hit it with any sort of accuracy. David, on the other hand, was a natural, effortlessly swinging his club and sending the ball soaring through the air. I was impressed by his technique and eager to learn from him.
Breaking Down the Basics
After two hours of practice, I finally started to get the hang of it. I was able to use my number 7 iron and driver to hit the ball a respectable 180 yards. According to the experts, proper positioning, posture, angle, and torso rotation are key to a successful swing. Here's what I learned:
- Grip: Holding the club correctly is essential for control and balance. I focused on using a neutral/overlapping grip, which helped me maintain a consistent swing.
Stance: Standing with my feet shoulder-width apart and my weight evenly distributed between both feet improved my stability and power. - Posture: Bending from the hips and keeping my back straight allowed me to maintain a consistent swing plane and generate more power.
- Torso Rotation: Rotating my torso and hips helped generate power and speed in my swing.
What’s Next?
I'm excited to continue practicing and improving my skills. With the help of David and some expert guidance, I'm confident I'll be hitting like a pro in no time. As I wrap up my first golfing experience, I'm looking forward to reporting on my progress soon. Who knows? Maybe I'll be breaking 80 in no time (a dad can dream, right?). For now, I'm just happy to have shared this experience with David and can't wait to see how far we'll go in this golfing journey together.
What struck me most is how every good shot started before the swing—with the right setup. Markets are the same: when our grip (risk), stance (position size), posture (clear plan), and rotation (disciplined execution) are aligned, results improve without swinging harder. Small fundamentals compound—on the range and in the portfolio.
Review of Recent Trade
Last week, our DPT Services model identified Seagate Technology (STX) as a long opportunity during Tuesday’s Live Trading Room session, and the trade unfolded in line with the signal. The setup paired a clean momentum turn with favorable risk/reward, and timely execution made the difference—entries were taken on confirmation rather than after the move was priced in.
Price action validated the alert as STX pushed from our entry zone, letting us scale risk appropriately and manage the position with predefined targets and stops. Even as intraday volatility picked up, sticking to the playbook—enter on confirmation, trim into strength, honor risk levels—kept the trade on track and preserved gains.
This is also where the advantage of our paid service comes in: subscribers receive real-time SMS alerts with precise entry and exit guidance, so opportunities like STX aren’t missed and exits aren’t guesswork. Revisit the trade and our step-by-step walkthrough in last Tuesday’s recording here: Live Trading Room Recordings.
Current Trading Landscape
Stocks spent the week pressing back toward record territory as the “cuts + AI” cocktail continued to set the tone. After the Fed’s September 17th 25 bp cut, the market’s focus shifted from if to how quickly additional easing arrives, and that policy tailwind, paired with another wave of AI-driven headlines, kept dip-buyers active even as valuations drew scrutiny. Volatility stayed contained with the VIX near 16, while rates were choppy but range-bound; the 10-year oscillated inside the familiar 3.6%–4.8% corridor, easing when labor revisions reinforced a cooling jobs backdrop.
Breadth remained narrow—tech and communication services did most of the lifting—but the tape still leaned constructive: the Morningstar U.S. Market Index was up about 1.25% on the week at midweek before a modest wobble. My SPY roadmap is unchanged: the rally can stretch toward 680–700 if momentum holds and breadth doesn’t deteriorate further, with 620–640 as working support over the next few months. The principal risk remains a “higher-for-longer” scare colliding with softening employment.
Monday opened with risk appetite back on the front foot as geopolitical nerves faded and AI leadership reasserted. A high-profile Nvidia–OpenAI partnership narrative—framed around massive infrastructure spend—recharged growth sentiment and helped the major averages flirt with new highs intraday. Semis and AI-adjacent hardware leaned bid into a busy earnings slate.
Tuesday delivered a valuation check. Stretch indicators made the rounds and leaders paused, but the damage was contained; volatility perked up, breadth narrowed, and prior highs generally held into the close. The day read like profit-taking, not a trend change.
Wednesday’s action centered on tariffs, the AI supply chain, and the earnings calendar. With Micron and Costco on deck and Nvidia still the market’s barometer, semis and storage caught supportive flows. Macro inputs stayed “good enough”: inflation remained firm but not re-accelerating, and downward labor revisions—about 1.2 million fewer payrolls over the last 16 months—kept the easing path credible even as they stirred recession chatter. The 10-year drifted lower, the VIX hovered near 16, and indexes retested highs.
Thursday reiterated that policy is doing the heavy lifting. The Fed’s message—risk-management cuts and data dependence—kept equities near the top of the range even while rates whipped around inside the same lane. Leadership stayed concentrated in tech and communication services. Outside of mega-cap tech, investors watched FedEx and housing read-throughs for signs that demand, pricing power, and margins can support a broader advance.
Friday mixed supportive data with shakier sentiment. PCE landed roughly in line with expectations—headline near 2.7% year-over-year and core near 2.9%—and came on the heels of an upside revision to 2Q GDP growth, developments that preserved high odds for another quarter-point cut by late October. At the same time, the University of Michigan survey slipped to 55.1, long-run inflation expectations inched up to 3.7%, and intraday enthusiasm faded: the Dow and S&P held modest gains while the Nasdaq gave back its morning pop. Front-end yields edged higher with the 2-year around 3.67% and the 10-year near 4.19%, underscoring a tape that remains hypersensitive to each macro print.
Next week’s employment data is the main event and will steer the “how fast” debate on additional cuts. A steady, “good-enough” labor profile keeps the soft-landing narrative intact; a hotter-than-expected inflation impulse or a sharper leg down in jobs would quickly reprice rates and multiples. ISM/PMIs and confidence readings will add color, and we’ll continue to watch earnings guidance for signs that leadership can broaden beyond mega-cap tech. Tariff and funding headlines remain wild cards but, so far, more noise than signal.
My stance is bullish with risk control. Momentum has resumed, and I prefer buying controlled dips into the mid-630s on SPY with clearly defined risk below 620, rather than chasing strength near the 690 handle. YellowTunnel’s AI forecast aligns with that posture: over the next ten trading days, our models lean modestly bullish with better-than-even odds of a probe into the 680s, contingent on earnings tone staying constructive and rates avoiding a sharp spike. The area of greatest near-term drawdown risk screens in the 635–645 band; a daily close below 620 would shift the near-term trend into repair mode. In practice, that argues for maintaining core exposure to leaders, layering tactical spreads on relative-strength names, and rolling winners rather than adding net delta at highs.
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Sector Spotlight
All week, the market made its preferences obvious. When tariffs stole headlines and labor data cooled, money still migrated toward businesses that can convert today’s capex into tomorrow’s profits with minimal friction. With the VIX hovering near 15 and the major indexes probing record territory, investors rewarded models with visible earnings trajectories, operating leverage, and balance sheets that don’t depend on generous credit to grow. Participation stayed narrow, but top performers held firm—especially in next-gen tech. Supportive macro trends and AI buzz kept capital flowing into rising-growth names.
You could see the telltales everywhere: rate-sensitive cyclicals chopped while platforms tied to AI workloads, cloud migration, and data creation quietly pushed higher. Storage names even caught a bid, a classic sign that capacity planning is happening now rather than later. In short, when the macro got noisy, investors hid in the clearest earnings visibility on the board.
Only now do we name it: technology. For broad, liquid exposure to the theme, $QQQ (Invesco QQQ ETF) is the cleanest vehicle. QQQ concentrates the market’s leadership—mega-cap platforms with durable cash flows, AI leverage, and ongoing margin efficiency—so it benefits directly from this week’s mix of low headline volatility, a data-dependent Fed edging into an easing cycle, and a market that’s willing to pay for near-term growth clarity. As long as indexes are retesting highs on narrow leadership and volatility remains subdued, QQQ is positioned to capture the momentum that’s doing the heavy lifting for the tape.
Trade of the Week: Seagate Technology ($STX)
Within that setup, Seagate Technology ($STX) screens as a timely add. This week’s action reinforced a simple truth: AI demand isn’t just about accelerators—it’s about storing, serving, and moving exponentially more data. As hyperscalers scale out AI clusters, nearline HDD remains the workhorse for high-capacity storage, while enterprise upgrades pull forward orders. That’s why seeing storage participate alongside broader tech leadership is meaningful; it signals real, near-term spend in the data layer, not just sentiment at the chip layer.
The macro tailwind helps. With the VIX near 15 and the market leaning into an easing-cycle narrative, multiples for cash-generating tech suppliers can stabilize just as fundamentals inflect. Anticipation around upcoming AI guidance (with eyes on data-center buildouts) tends to pull capacity plans forward—historically a positive read-through for STX’s volume mix and pricing discipline. Add the week’s narrow breadth—capital chasing earnings visibility—and you have conditions that typically favor picks-and-shovels vendors tied directly to deployed workloads.
Technically, STX has been trading like a leadership follower rather than a laggard: higher lows into event risk, quick recoveries on rate hiccups, and constructive consolidations instead of disorderly drawdowns. Pair that tape with improving demand signals from the storage complex this week, and the risk/reward skews attractive.
Why I’m adding $STX to the portfolio now: it sits at the crossroads of the market’s strongest theme (AI/data growth) and this week’s leadership dynamics (low vol, retests of highs, investor preference for visible earnings). As data-center capex cycles through racks and rooms—not quarters—Seagate’s operating leverage typically expands with every turn in high-capacity drive shipments. I’ll anchor risk around recent swing lows, scale on strength rather than chase gaps, and use QQQ as a real-time barometer for trend health. If the coming AI updates validate continued server and storage buildouts, STX should have the torque to outperform into year-end while fitting a disciplined, risk-managed playbook.
This week, I’ll add Seagate Technology ($STX) to my portfolio!
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The consistent performance of our services is just incredible. My historical stellar performance is made possible by being right on 82.84% of all trades that I made, with an average profit of 39.01% per trade on our collective trade recommendations. To my knowledge, this trading performance is one-of-a-kind and stands alone in the marketplace for superior trading advice, where our numbers and results speak for themselves.
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Whether you’re focused on real-time trade opportunities, advanced analysis, or developing a disciplined trading mindset, we’ve got the tools and insights to guide you. As the year unfolds, let's work together to make 2025 the most profitable year for your portfolio. But remember—successful investing starts with informed decisions. Always conduct thorough research and assess your risk tolerance before executing any trades.
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Wishing you a week filled with resilience, growth, and prosperous opportunities!