$JPM Investment Opportunity - Limited Time Only
A Proud Dad’s Kitchen and Market Lesson
My oldest daughter, Becki, has just started her new job in wealth management after graduating from college, and I couldn't be prouder. It's surreal to see her transition from a college student to a professional, taking on new challenges and responsibilities that once seemed so far off in the future.
What's even more special is the bond we've developed over the past few weeks. Now that she's back home and settled into her new routine, we get to enjoy quality time together in ways we never expected. Our dinner conversations have evolved beyond the usual "how was your day?" to deep dives into market dynamics, client psychology, and the nuances of portfolio construction. We’ve even resurrected our old ping‑pong table, trading fast rallies and friendly banter as a way to unwind after long days—her competitive spirit still intact, but tempered now with the poise of a young professional.
But the moment that truly warmed my heart came when my wife was away on a business trip. Becki surprised me by texting early that afternoon: “What would you like for dinner?” I half‑jokingly asked for a simple chicken salad, and later that evening, she emerged from the kitchen bearing her version of the classic dish. The salad was anything but ordinary—tender chicken marinated in lemon and thyme, crisp greens tossed with a light vinaigrette she’d perfected during her collegiate culinary experiments, and just a hint of toasted almonds for crunch. Paired with a bottle of our favorite Sauvignon Blanc, it felt like a Michelin‑star experience at home.
Over dinner, we talked about everything—from the mentoring program she’s leading at work to the afternoon’s market sell‑off and what it meant for risk management. She explained how she’d helped a client rebalance into defensive names ahead of their earnings report, then pivot back into cyclicals when volatility subsided. Watching her articulate those strategies reminded me of the countless hours she spent poring over textbooks and internships to master this world.
That perfect evening—great food, good wine, lively ping‑pong matches, and even better conversation—underscored why I do what I do. As a dad, witnessing Becki’s growth from student to professional has been a reminder that careful preparation, adaptive strategy, and disciplined execution are the foundations of success, whether in the kitchen, at the ping‑pong table, or in the markets. Just as Becki researches every ingredient and times her cooking to perfection, we research every position we take and time our entries and exits to capture the best risk‑adjusted returns. It’s in those parallels—between a well‑crafted dinner and a thoughtfully constructed portfolio—that I find both pride in her achievements and renewed inspiration for my own work. Here’s to many more wonderful moments—and many more winning trades—ahead!
Recent Trade Review
On Wednesday’s Dynamic Power Trading call, our proprietary model flagged Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) as a high‑conviction long. The setup combined two powerful catalysts: Europe’s surge in infrastructure spending—driven by green‑energy initiatives and post‑pandemic rebuilding—and dovish commentary from the European Central Bank that suggested lower borrowing costs ahead.
Technically, CAT burst above its 50‑day moving average on a 25% jump in volume, a clear signal of institutional accumulation. We initiated the position at $235.50, placed a protective stop at $229.00, and set a profit target of $245.00. By Friday’s close at $242.10, the trade had delivered a 2.8% gain in just three days—validating our process and timing.
For a full breakdown of the analysis and live execution, watch the replay here:
👉 Live Trading Room Recording
Current Trading Landscape
This week felt like a delicate balancing act, with the S&P 500 caught between firm support at $580–$590 and resistance near $630–$640. Despite carving out fresh record highs on both the S&P and the Nasdaq, volatility remained surprisingly muted—the VIX hovered near 16, a level more akin to complacency than genuine calm. With recession odds rising, rate‑cut expectations pushed out to late 2025, and unemployment risks simmering, our stance remains market neutral: we anticipate the major averages trading sideways until a definitive catalyst reshapes conviction. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
The drama began Monday morning when President Trump unveiled plans for a sweeping 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports, effective August 1, accompanied by threats of an additional 10% levy on BRICS‑aligned nations and 20% duties on Vietnamese goods. Global automakers quickly sounded alarms—General Motors forecast a $1 billion earnings hit in 2025—and the Dow plunged over 600 points intraday, its sharpest one‑day drop in months. Yet by Tuesday, whispers of potential compromise—U.S. negotiators reportedly eyeing a 15% tariff similar to recent deals with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines—helped claw back nearly half of those losses, underscoring how diplomacy can swiftly temper panic.
As trade tensions ebbed and flowed, U.S. data releases offered both reassurance and a warning shot. June retail sales surged 0.6% month‑over‑month—triple consensus expectations—driven by robust e‑commerce and auto spending, signaling resilient consumer demand. At the same time, durable‑goods orders tumbled 9.3% after May’s Boeing‑led spike, with transportation equipment orders down 22.4% and aerospace orders plunging 51.8%, leaving the ex‑transportation tally up a mere 0.2%. Initial jobless claims held at 221,000, beneath forecasts and reinforcing labor‑market strength, but June’s Consumer Price Index climbed 2.7% year‑over‑year, as tariff‑inflated import costs and rising shelter expenses reminded investors that inflation remains far from tamed.
Midweek, policy theater took center stage. Thursday’s widely publicized visit by President Trump to the Fed’s Eccles Building saw him both praise and publicly press Chair Powell—cautioning that rate cuts were overdue even as fresh jobless‑claims data argued the opposite. Traders swiftly priced out a July rate cut, instead banking on two reductions later in the year. Across the Atlantic, the ECB held its deposit rate at 2% after eight straight quarter‑point cuts, matching June inflation to target and joining the Fed in a “data‑dependent” wait‑and‑see stance. That parallel hawkish posture sent two‑year U.S. yields toward 3.95% and ten‑year yields oscillating between 3.6% and 4.8% before settling around 4.42%.
Through all this noise, the opening salvo of Q2 earnings provided a mixed but generally positive backdrop. Roughly 50 S&P 500 companies reported, and 88% beat analysts’ estimates. PepsiCo and Domino’s Pizza impressed with pricing power and smoother supply chains, while United Airlines tempered enthusiasm by lowering its 2025 guidance on softer cargo demand. Tech giants held firm: Google posted 14% revenue growth thanks to Cloud and ad strength; IBM signaled early traction in its hybrid‑cloud pivot; and Intel surprised skeptics with upbeat Q3 guidance despite one‑time charges. Tesla offered a cautionary note, warning of “rough quarters” as U.S. EV tax incentives fade.
Sector rotation told the week’s deeper story. Nvidia’s resumption of AI‑chip exports to China powered the Nasdaq to fresh highs on Wednesday and Friday. Solar names—Sunrun and First Solar—surrendered gains after the rollback of green‑energy subsidies. Defensive staples like Dollar Tree found buyers amid uncertainty. And financials quietly outpaced most sectors: JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all topped earnings forecasts, buoyed by wider net‑interest margins and strong trading revenues, helping XLF clear $36 resistance by week’s end.
As the market settles into Friday’s earnings‑season lull, the averages tread water—up modestly in the Dow and S&P, with the Nasdaq flirting with new highs. With SPY confined to its well‑defined range and no obvious catalyst in sight, disciplined risk management and selective position‑taking remain essential. Until a trade‑deal breakthrough, a clear Fed pivot, or an unexpected guidance shift breaks this uneasy balance, expect the market’s tightrope act to continue.
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Sector Spotlight
In a week dominated by trade‑war headlines and rate‑cut speculation, one corner of the market has quietly outpaced the noise. While investors fussed over tariff announcements and Fed minutes, this sector has been accumulating at key support levels, benefiting from shifting yield dynamics and strong consumer activity. As other groups hesitate on mixed economic signals, this area has demonstrated both resilience in earnings reports and steady institutional buying—setting the stage for what could be one of the market’s most reliable drivers in the weeks ahead.
This week’s undercurrent of tariff headlines and Fed uncertainty masked a powerful rotation into financials, and nowhere was that more evident than in the performance of the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF). After flirting with range resistance at $52.50 early in the week, XLF broke decisively above that level on Thursday and closed the week at $53.07, propelled by a resurgence in bank stocks following better‑than‑expected Q2 results from JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo.
Traders were particularly encouraged by the widening spread between two‑ and ten‑year Treasury yields, which jumped from 60 to over 70 basis points midweek—an instant boost to banks’ net interest margins. Retail sales in June, which grew 0.6% month‑over‑month, further underpinned consumer‑loan demand, while Thursday’s ECB decision to hold rates steady suggested the Fed may be slower to cut, keeping yields elevated for longer.
Throughout these moves, our A.I. models consistently flagged XLF’s accumulation pattern: volume remained above its 10‑day average during each uptick, and the ETF held support at $52.00 before advancing toward new highs. In essence, financials provided a lift when other sectors wavered, driven by concrete earnings beats, yield‑curve dynamics, and robust loan growth, making XLF a standout choice for both cyclical strength and defensive balance in a choppy market.
Trade of the Week: JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
In a market where financials quietly led the charge—XLF closing at $53.07 on the back of widening net‑interest margins and resilient loan growth—JPMorgan Chase stands out as the premier way to capture that strength.
After dipping to $287.00 midweek amidst tariff jitters, JPMorgan roared back to life, closing Friday at $296.55 and reclaiming its 200‑day moving average. That recovery wasn’t mere technical gravity; it sprang from a Q2 report that beat on both the top and bottom lines. Net interest income climbed 7% year‑over‑year as the two‑ and ten‑year Treasury spread steepened to over 70 basis points, instantly boosting the bank’s core lending margins. Meanwhile, trading‑desk revenues held firm despite broader equity volatility, underscoring JPMorgan’s diversified business model.
The firm’s balance sheet told an equally compelling story: consumer loan balances grew in line with June’s 0.6% retail sales surge, and deposits remained sticky even as the Fed’s “higher for longer” rate message kept two‑year yields near 3.95%. On the tape, JPM’s average daily volume spiked 20% on Thursday as institutional buyers flowed back into the shares, a clear sign that smart money recognized the setup. Technically, JPM formed a tightening range between $290 and $296—a classic coil that our models view as a launchpad for the next leg higher.
With trade tensions ebbing on talk of 15% compromise tariffs, a stable policy backdrop from both the Fed and the ECB, and a marketplace hungry for yield‑curve beneficiaries, JPMorgan combines cyclical upside with defensive ballast. Its valuation remains attractive, trading at just 10.5x forward earnings, while returning capital through dividends and buybacks. In short, JPMorgan offers the perfect blend of fundamental strength, macro tailwinds, and technical structure.
This week, I’ll add JPMorgan Chase (JPM) to my portfolio!
And one more thing! Our track record speaks for itself from the standpoint of a Winning Trades Percentage, Average Return Per Trade, and Net Gain. Just take a look:
The consistent performance of our services is just incredible. My historical stellar performance is made possible by being right on 82.98% of all trades that I made, with an average profit of 38.57% per trade on our collective trade recommendations. To my knowledge, this trading performance is one-of-a-kind and stands alone in the marketplace for superior trading advice, where our numbers and results speak for themselves.
As we move into the thick of Q3, now is the perfect time to reassess your trading strategy and take your portfolio to the next level. Visit our website at www.yellowtunnel.com to explore our range of services and select one as your default trading system. With the power of our AI-driven platform, YellowTunnel is designed to help you navigate the complexities of the market, refine your strategy, and drive profitability in 2025.
Whether you’re focused on real-time trade opportunities, advanced analysis, or developing a disciplined trading mindset, we’ve got the tools and insights to guide you. As the year unfolds, let's work together to make 2025 the most profitable year for your portfolio. But remember—successful investing starts with informed decisions. Always conduct thorough research and assess your risk tolerance before executing any trades.
Let’s make this year a transformative one for your financial growth!
One more thing, I've had the opportunity to take additional action with a great organization supporting families in Ukraine directly. Gate.org is a foundation where fundraising is held for specific families, allocating funds to multiple families currently living in Ukraine. I am on the board of directors for this great initiative and encourage everyone to check it out and donate if possible. The war in Ukraine is escalating and families are being negatively impacted and displaced daily. To learn more about this initiative to help families, please see the link below:
Wishing you a week filled with resilience, growth, and prosperous opportunities!