Halliburton Flashes a Timely Buy Signal as Markets Rotate and Reprice Risk
A Polar Vortex Parenting Moment: Chicago's Deep Freeze and a Daughter's Big Move
Chicago’s Arctic blast this week brought truly frigid temperatures, and I got a firsthand taste of the polar vortex’s bite. My room above the garage dropped to 40 degrees at one point and is now a balmy 60—quite the temperature swing in just a few days. But as uncomfortable as the weather was, the real drama had nothing to do with the cold.
Just six months after graduating, my daughter landed a job at a fintech company and decided it was time to spread her wings. And, naturally, she chose the coldest day in recent memory to move out. I rented a U-Haul, and things immediately got real when the key froze solid in the lock outside. What followed was an hour-long battle with frozen metal, numb fingers, and stubborn hardware—but we DIYers are made of tougher stuff. My daughter’s a chip off the old block, so we rolled up our sleeves and handled the move ourselves.
Six hours later, the deed was done. My baby is officially living on her own, and I’m left wondering what’s more shocking—the frozen bite on my hands or just how fast she grew up. It’s a proud parent moment, mixed with that familiar question: where did the time go?
Lately, markets feel a bit like that polar vortex: choppy, unpredictable, and forcing everyone to adapt quickly. The Federal Reserve held rates steady again this week amid elevated inflation readings, underscoring that monetary policy isn’t quite done with uncertainty yet as investors digest mixed economic data and policy cues. Stocks have slipped and volatility has picked up in recent sessions, driven by inflation surprises, leadership changes at the Fed, and broader risk-off sentiment showing up in equities and crypto alike. Meanwhile, consumer confidence recently hit a multi-year low even as parts of the economy still show resilience.
Psychologically, it mirrors that “deep freeze day”—a test of patience, resilience, and perspective. Markets ebb and flow, just like temperatures here in Chicago, and the challenge for investors is to stay steady through the discomfort, adapt when conditions shift, and remember that transitions—whether a daughter moving out or a market repricing risk—often feel more dramatic in the moment than they do in hindsight.
Recent Trade Review: $AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.)
Last week in our Dynamic Power Trader (DPT) service, we executed a long trade in $AMZN — Amazon.com, Inc., based on a high-probability setup identified by the model. The trade was discussed live in the Tuesday Live Trading Room, where we walked through the signal, the reasoning behind it, and how we managed the position in real time.
One of the key advantages of the paid DPT service versus the free tools is speed and precision. Paid members receive SMS alerts for both entries and exits, allowing you to act promptly as the trade unfolds—especially important in actively traded names like AMZN, where timing can make a meaningful difference.
This trade is a good example of how following a disciplined, model-driven approach helps remove emotion and focus on execution, even when broader market conditions remain choppy.
👉 You can review the full breakdown and replay the session here!
Current Trading Landscape
The market spent this week navigating a dense mix of macro signals, earnings results, and policy headlines, and the result was a tape that felt heavy but controlled. Early optimism gave way to hesitation as investors weighed geopolitical developments, inflation data, and shifting expectations around monetary policy leadership. While the major indices remain near their highs for the year, momentum has clearly softened, and conviction has become more selective.
The week began on a constructive note after the administration stepped back from proposed tariffs on European allies following negotiations tied to Arctic and security access. While the agreement itself was light on detail and left longer-term trade uncertainty unresolved, the immediate removal of tariff risk helped ease inflation fears and unlocked pent-up buying. Energy and materials led the early rebound, helping markets recover from prior losses and briefly restore risk appetite. That initial rally, however, proved fragile, underscoring how dependent sentiment has become on policy clarity rather than broad-based economic acceleration.
As the week progressed, attention shifted decisively toward earnings, where dispersion—not direction—defined market behavior. Within megacap technology, results exposed a growing intolerance for ambiguity. Microsoft delivered solid headline numbers, but shares sold off sharply as investors focused on softer guidance and a modest deceleration in Azure cloud growth. Even though cloud revenue growth remained strong, the slight slowdown mattered in a market hypersensitive to marginal changes. That reaction weighed on the broader software complex and pulled the Nasdaq off its highs.
Meta Platforms produced the opposite outcome. Strong fourth-quarter results and higher-than-expected forward guidance reassured investors that its heavy AI investment is translating into tangible earnings power. The stock surged as markets rewarded visibility around monetization and near-term profitability. The contrast between Microsoft and Meta captured a defining theme of this earnings season: investment spending is acceptable, but only when accompanied by clear returns.
Outside of big tech, earnings were broadly solid but selectively rewarded. SoFi Technologies posted its first billion-dollar quarter in adjusted revenue and continued rapid user growth, yet shares fell as investors reassessed valuation and sustainability. Exxon Mobil exceeded earnings expectations, but the stock slipped as attention shifted toward the prospect of lower earnings in 2026 despite higher oil prices. Verizon delivered strong subscriber growth but tempered enthusiasm with guidance pointing to flat revenue trends. Meanwhile, Charles Schwab stood out with significant asset inflows, a sizable dividend increase, and plans to expand into cryptocurrency and alternative investments. Industrials such as GE Aerospace and GE Vernova reinforced confidence in long-cycle demand, highlighting margin expansion and cash flow durability tied to infrastructure and energy transition spending.
Midweek optimism faded further after inflation data reasserted itself as a constraint. December producer prices rose faster than expected, reviving concerns that disinflation may remain uneven. Treasury yields initially moved higher in response, reminding investors that the path to lower rates is far from assured. That backdrop took on added complexity late in the week when President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee for the next Federal Reserve chair. Markets reacted cautiously rather than dramatically. Futures dipped overnight, the dollar strengthened, and longer-term yields briefly spiked before retracing, suggesting investors remain focused on data rather than personalities. The message from rates markets was consistent: inflation risks, fiscal policy, and growth resilience will continue to dictate outcomes.
By Friday, equities were under modest pressure as investors digested the full week’s developments. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all pulled back, with the Dow extending a short-term losing streak even as it remains positive for the month. Volatility stayed elevated but contained, signaling unease rather than panic. The market was not breaking down, but it was clearly recalibrating.
That recalibration reflects a broader psychological shift. This is no longer a market that rewards growth narratives alone. Investors are demanding evidence—clear margins, cash flow visibility, and a tighter connection between investment and profit. Capital is rotating rather than fleeing. Energy, materials, and select cyclicals continued to show relative strength, while long-duration growth and software names faced sustained pressure. Treasury yields oscillated throughout the week, reinforcing the reality that macro conditions are no longer providing a tailwind for valuation expansion.
At the same time, defensive hedging behavior remains evident. Gold and silver moved higher, with gold reaching fresh records as global demand surged. That activity suggests investors are managing risk rather than abandoning equities altogether. The longer-term equity trend remains intact, but the environment has become less forgiving.
Looking ahead, the market appears increasingly range-bound. Upside progress will depend on broader earnings confirmation and stabilization in rates, while downside risks are being mitigated by resilient growth and selective buying on pullbacks. Leadership is fragmenting, and stock selection matters more than index exposure. In this phase, discipline and adaptability are more valuable than prediction. The market is still offering opportunities—but only to those willing to respect changing conditions and stay grounded amid the noise.
Big Tech Reports This Week
Our AI Already Spotted AMZN & CSCO Opportunities
Tech earnings season is about to explode.
Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta—the biggest names in the market are all reporting in the next few weeks.
And if you've been trading for any length of time, you know what that means: Massive volatility. Huge moves. Life-changing opportunities.
But here's the problem: Which tech stocks will actually deliver? And more importantly, how do you position yourself to profit without getting crushed by the wild swings?
That's where professional guidance makes all the difference.
Sector Spotlight: Where Quiet Strength Is Re-Emerging
As markets churn near key technical levels and leadership fragments, one corner of the tape has been quietly regaining traction. It hasn’t relied on flashy earnings beats or speculative narratives. Instead, its appeal has come from something far more valuable in this environment: consistency. While growth-heavy areas have been punished for even minor disappointments and long-duration assets have struggled under higher-for-longer rate expectations, this group has benefited from steady demand, improving cash flows, and a renewed bid for real assets.
Earlier this week, when tariff headlines briefly eased and geopolitical risk receded, this pocket of the market was among the first to respond. That reaction wasn’t accidental. Investors are increasingly drawn to areas that can absorb macro uncertainty without relying on multiple expansion. In a market that is no longer rewarding promise alone, sectors tied to tangible demand and pricing power are regaining credibility.
Psychologically, this rotation makes sense. After months of narrow leadership and hypersensitivity to rate moves, confidence is rebuilding selectively—not broadly. Investors aren’t fleeing risk, but they are reallocating toward areas that offer visibility. That’s especially true as inflation data remains sticky and bond yields continue to oscillate, keeping pressure on valuation-sensitive equities. When volatility rises but remains contained, capital tends to rotate toward assets perceived as durable rather than dynamic.
That durability is showing up in commodity-linked equities, where pricing remains firm even as global growth expectations are debated. Corporate commentary across this space continues to emphasize disciplined capital spending and shareholder returns rather than aggressive expansion. In other words, management teams are behaving in a way that aligns with investor caution.
All of this brings us to the energy sector, and more specifically to SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). XOP has started to reassert relative strength as investors rotate toward upstream exposure that benefits from stable oil prices and improving margins. Unlike mega-cap energy names that can behave defensively, XOP offers torque to improving sentiment without requiring a speculative leap. In a market recalibrating expectations, that balance is increasingly attractive.
Energy isn’t being chased—it’s being rediscovered. And in a tape defined by selectivity, that distinction matters.
Trade of the Week: Halliburton Steps Into the Rotation
With energy quietly regaining momentum, the next logical step is identifying where that rotation can translate into an asymmetric opportunity. For me, that symbol is Halliburton, and it’s a name I’m adding to my portfolio.
Halliburton sits at a compelling intersection of this week’s trading landscape. As upstream activity stabilizes and capital spending remains disciplined, oilfield services companies are benefiting from sustained demand without the boom-and-bust excesses of prior cycles. This week’s earnings across the energy complex reinforced that theme: margins are holding, international demand remains firm, and service pricing is proving more resilient than many expected.
From a sentiment perspective, HAL has been overlooked rather than overowned. While integrated energy stocks captured earlier flows, service providers lagged as investors waited for confirmation that spending would translate into earnings durability. That confirmation is starting to arrive. As operators focus on efficiency and production optimization rather than aggressive expansion, companies like Halliburton are positioned to benefit from steady utilization and improving returns on capital.
Technically, HAL has also begun to reflect that shift. The stock has shown signs of accumulation during recent market pullbacks, holding key levels even as broader indices wobbled. That relative strength aligns with what we’ve seen across energy more broadly this week—buyers stepping in on weakness rather than chasing strength. In a range-bound market, that behavior often precedes leadership.
What makes this setup compelling is how cleanly it ties back to the broader psychology shaping markets right now. Investors are no longer paying up for long-dated promises. They’re allocating toward businesses with visible demand, operational leverage, and pricing power that works in today’s rate environment. Halliburton checks those boxes while still offering upside if energy sentiment continues to firm.
The takeaway is simple but powerful. As markets move from enthusiasm to discernment, leadership shifts toward areas that feel grounded rather than aspirational. Energy is quietly reclaiming that role, and Halliburton offers a focused way to express that view. In a market defined by rotation, not collapse, aligning with where confidence is rebuilding can make all the difference.
This week, I’ll add Halliburton ($HAL) to my portfolio!
And one more thing! Our track record speaks for itself from the standpoint of a Winning Trades Percentage, Average Return Per Trade, and Net Gain. Just take a look:
The consistent performance of our services is just incredible. My historical stellar performance is made possible by being right on 82.48% of all trades that I made, with an average profit of 39.39% per trade on our collective trade recommendations. To my knowledge, this trading performance is one-of-a-kind and stands alone in the marketplace for superior trading advice, where our numbers and results speak for themselves.
As we step into 2026, shifting market conditions make this an ideal moment to reevaluate your trading approach and position your portfolio for the opportunities ahead. Explore the full suite of tools and services at www.yellowtunnel.com and choose the trading system that aligns with your goals for the new year. Powered by advanced AI and built for today’s fast‑moving markets, YellowTunnel helps you cut through noise, sharpen your strategy, and pursue stronger, more consistent performance in 2026.
Whether you’re focused on real-time trade opportunities, advanced analysis, or developing a disciplined trading mindset, we’ve got the tools and insights to guide you. As the year unfolds, let's work together to make 2025 the most profitable year for your portfolio. But remember—successful investing starts with informed decisions. Always conduct thorough research and assess your risk tolerance before executing any trades.
Let’s make this year a transformative one for your financial growth!
One more thing, I've had the opportunity to take additional action with a great organization supporting families in Ukraine directly. Gate.org is a foundation where fundraising is held for specific families, allocating funds to multiple families currently living in Ukraine. I am on the board of directors for this great initiative and encourage everyone to check it out and donate if possible. The war in Ukraine is escalating, and families are being negatively impacted and displaced daily. To learn more about this initiative to help families, please see the link below:
Wishing you a week filled with resilience, growth, and prosperous opportunities!