TLT For Upcoming TNT Market
Hi everyone and welcome to the Yellow Tunnel community, an aggressive short-term trading service dedicated to all classes of traders seeking to elevate their trading skills, market awareness, and trading profits.
Another week is in the books. As I alluded to last week, following the market close, I took my son on a fishing trip over the weekend. We went up to Michigan and spent some time on the lake, waking up early and casting our rods, setting up campfires at night. We had a great time and even got to go out on a boat for some deep-lake fishing. Our captain took us far into Lake Michigan, using an electronic fish finder, to the perfect spot. The sun was out, not a cloud in sight, and supposedly there were fish right below us. Unfortunately, the only thing that was not perfect was that we did not catch a single fish that day.
We scanned the fishfinder and saw plenty of activity below us, but not a single nibble. We waited for hours, chatting with the captain and checking our lines occasionally. At the end of the day, we returned to shore just as we had left- fishless. Our captain, however, could not let us leave empty-handed. Before departing, he showed us his haul from the previous day. In that same spot, he was able to reel in fish after fish. So before we departed, the captain gave us a salmon and a walleye. We were elated.
Although the fish were not caught by our rods, we felt fulfilled by our morning fishing trip. We spent the day on the lake, got to learn about a new type of fishing, cast actual deep-sea rods, and exchanged stories with a real sea captain. And then came home with two beautiful fish! That night, we made a campfire and successfully cooked fish soup over the open flames. Not once did my son seem bothered by the fact we did not catch a fish that day. Perhaps it was the perfect fishing spot even if we didn't catch anything.
On the lake, our captain stressed the importance of patience. Some days he'd come out to the lake and spend hours before his rods would even register a bite. Likewise, he expressed the importance of getting up early, the early bird gets the worm, and in this case, the fish! The more time he'd give himself on the lake, the better his chances were of finding some properly hungry fish. And finally, the unpredictable nature of luck will play in all of this. While you can't account for the last one, the first two you certainly can. And that is something I also adhere to when trading. While some things you cannot predict or control, the things you can are the ones you should focus on. We did our best on the lake and together made great long-term memories.
When I returned to my computer and portfolio on Monday, I looked for the things I could control and focused on doing them the best I could. This included responding to the latest earnings and economic reports which continue to dictate market movement at the moment.
This is exactly what we did during my most recent Strategy Roundtable, which takes place weekly on YellowTunnel. It might be difficult to keep track of everything in the market, especially if you're going through it all alone. That is why I encourage you to join a trading community where you may interact and analyze with others. I recommend checking out our latest Roundtable webinar in its entirety below:
How To Trade a Bear Market Strategy Roundtable
This week, the market was supported by good or optimistic earnings and opposed by mounting indications of price inflation and recession.
After a much stronger-than-expected employment reading in July bolstered expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue aggressively raising interest rates in order to curb inflation, U.S. equities somewhat surprisingly fell late Friday.
The United States created over 528,000 new employment in July, and the jobless rate fell to pre-pandemic levels. Estimates for the month neared 300,000 but were easily surpassed. The jobless rate dropped to 3.5% from 3.6%, while hourly earnings increased 15 cents, or 0.5%, to $32.27. While strong employment is traditionally an indicator of a strong economy, the robust report could stoke inflation fears and push borrowing costs even higher, some analysts fear.
Elsewhere, earnings continued to impress with companies like Moderna, PayPal, and Starbucks seeing shares soar behind strong reports. For the most part, major name quarterly reports are behind us. Coinbase, Disney, and Spirit Airlines are some of the remaining major names still due to report next week. Also, next week, watch out for the latest core CPI data release.
With the unpredictable nature of the market and the uncertainty ahead of us, I can’t emphasize enough how vital it is for our readers and members of the Yellow Tunnel community to keep referring to our Live Trading Room so as to maintain a close tie of how our I and my AI platform is navigating us in and out of select trades. It’s FREE and I highly encourage everyone to sign up to the Live Trading Room and keep checking in throughout the trading day.
Every Monday and Wednesday, I highlight our best strategies and potential trading setups via the DISCORD server. It’s the future of bringing together a trading community’s total services, educational products, live chat venues, support, news, how-to tutorials, webinars, live-trading demonstrations, and tons of market analysis. It is incredibly interactive and full of crucial and timely information. Just go to:
I also want to emphasize to traders how vital a stop-loss discipline is to winning and being successful in an unforgiving market. We employ specific stop-loss instructions with every trade. The buy and sell programs controlled by high-frequency related algorithms can create great profits or cause sudden losses, so it is imperative to maintain an element of controlling risk with each trade.
CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE
As of Friday, the 5-day chart shows the $SPY was trading 0.65% higher, just over $411. The S&P 500 sold off slightly on Friday following the impressive July employment report. Oil sold off while gold traded higher to end the week. European markets closed in the red while Asian markets moved higher on Friday.
The $DXY marginally rose on Friday, near the $106 level, whereas the $TLT sold off throughout the week and continued to do so on Friday, finishing near the $116 mark.
I am under the impression the market is overbought, as several indicators allude to, and I believe the market is building a top that can make marginal highs but risks a large downside. I expect the top building to occur for one to four weeks but the sell-off will resume sooner rather than later.
As I've previously stated, I believe this is a short-term rally in a bear market. I am expecting the rally to come to an end as soon as this month and the bear market to resume downward momentum into the September-October time frame.
The buck has begun to recover from its recent decline, suggesting that the current rally is coming to an end. As we saw today, employment data sparked volatility and we will likely see additional volatility next week sparked by CPI and PPI inflation data.
With revived volatility in the market, I encourage users not to chase the market and sell into the rallies. At this time I have a net bearish portfolio.
The 10-year yield broke 2.7% and reached the 2.5% level. As the yield curve inversion continues to accelerate, I am going to sell Banks and hedge my portfolio from further downside risk.
Looking at the latest market conditions, I'd be a seller into the rally and have a NEUTRAL portfolio right now. The market is currently overbought and is top building.
The "BUY" signal based on the Aggressive Power Trader Portfolio is at the $406 and then $401 level using SPY and the "SELL" signal is at $420 and then $430.
Consider selling premium if you're trading options. November and December expiration dates are ideal for selling premium.
NEW EARNINGS POWER TRADER SERVICE
I recently launched our new Earnings Power Trader service which I am very excited about. Each week, our expert traders use our AI Tools to provide the Top Bullish and Bearish Stocks, each with an Entry Price, Target Profit, and Stop Loss.
This new service is special because it offers real-time alerts via SMS and access to Vlad's live positions and orders. When I put together this system, I wanted to be in the fight with other investors. That’s why I don’t play on your emotions to sell newsletters - I put my money where my mouth is.
Every trade recommendation that I make using this system – comes straight from the list of trade recommendations I use myself.
Not only that but every trade I make is logged in detail for you to review at any time. You can see my entire trading history, updated LIVE so that you can see, learn from, and even copy my trading strategy. Click here to learn more.
Signals have historically averaged over 85% accuracy in my live trading since inception. Sometimes I hold positions for 2-5 days by using options (selling OTM Calls and Puts spread) and targeting 1% target gain and 1% stop loss using stock price. The green color should be interpreted as a bullish signal and the red as a bearish signal.
How To Use Our Signals
Once you become a member, I encourage you to review our Live Trading Room recordings to see how I trade Aggressive Power Trader signals in my account. A snapshot of how we produce our Live Trading Room Sessions shows how we pack in a lot of information that can be accessed from whatever device you’re driving.
As a reminder, consider buying near the "BUY" level with a "10 days prediction" higher than the close price. In our live trading room, I usually hold a position for 1-2 days.
I allocate less than 5% of my portfolio if the position is being held overnight. On average, less than 1% of the portfolio should be at risk if you own a position for less than one day.
I enter a position at the predicted LOW (BUY) price or yesterday's close price. My stop loss is 1% and my target gain is 1% of the stock price. I target 75% accuracy using these signals.
Few subscribers asked about Options trading using the signals provided. Please review live trading room recordings. I often sell OTM credit put spread using weekly options and collect 0.5% using stock price. For example, if the stock is trading at $100, I would sell an OTM Put (strike less than 100) with an option BID price close to $0.5.
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SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
I follow the market closely and one sector, in my opinion, is primed for a good run. I am also seeing several trends that support my view and will likely make a move as soon as the coming week. As the market continues to build a top, I see no indication that the bear market is behind us.
This rally, supported by the Fed decision and strong earnings reports, presents an interesting scenario for traders going into the month of August.
As I've previously stated, I always believed the bear market would resume following the latest rally. And as the dollar begins to recover, we now look toward this particular sector as a wise investment in what appears to be a turbulent upcoming market landscape.
We are moving further from earnings season and the market is primed for volatility. With an uptick of uncertainty and a slowdown in economic reporting following the last few news-heavy weeks, I am seeing a sector that can withstand any potential market disruptors and extreme volatility. I am looking at treasuries and specifically one symbol in particular.
TRADE OF THE WEEK
This week's choice is iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.) Traders should be able to find some stability in this key symbol in the treasury sector. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF provides exposure to long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, and with the likely volatility to unfold in the next few weeks, this is a perfect haven.
The fund's expense ratio is reasonable and its liquidity allows it to trade easily. Because of this, it has become a popular choice for investors seeking income from equities. Because of the current interest rates, which can drive up the price of bonds, it should be an excellent investment opportunity in the near future.
With the current overbought nature of the market, this ETF has the potential to outperform the market and our A.I. arsenal is predicting it as well.
Looking at our long-term forecast tool, our Seasonal Chart, seen above, shows a “higher” probability reading for the next 20-day period. The annual seasonal line has created a decent gap above the current price line and is signaling towards a prime opportunity. If the dollar is an indicator of upcoming market direction, TLT will likely see a nice boost.
In the 10-day Stock Forecast Toolbox predicted data, seen above and below, we find a similar reading that shows the potential for this symbol. Current TLT levels are below our predicted highs and lows while presenting a strong vector trend in the coming days. This, coupled with the Seasonal Chart reading is a strong trend I’d like to back.
Over the last six months, TLT is down 16.24% and began to mount a nice turnaround this month. The latest market conditions spell an overbought market set for a return to its bear territory which makes TLT a great play in the coming days.
This is exactly where our AI tools are so crucial in determining precise entry and exit points. I’ll be looking to trade $TLT this week.
We connect our Tradespoon Live Trading Room to YellowTunnel in an effort to assist you in managing the current inflationary trend. We keep our positions updated on a regular basis and our AI system seamlessly integrates with our platform to give our customers the most comprehensive trading experience available today.
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The consistent performance of our services is just incredible. My historical stellar performance is made possible by being right on 85.85% of all trades that I made, with an average profit of 37% per trade on our collective trade recommendations. To my knowledge, this trading performance is one-of-a-kind that stands alone in the marketplace for superior trading advice where our numbers and results speak for themselves.
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Have a fantastic week, keep Ukraine in your thoughts and prayers, and let's make some great money together!