Hi everyone and welcome to the Yellow Tunnel community, an aggressive short-term trading service dedicated to all classes of traders seeking to elevate their trading skills, market awareness, and trading profits.
We're in the dog days of summer. With the Fourth of July holiday getting further and further away in the rearview and still a month before the kids go back to school, we are all trying to soak in the last days of July. I've got two kids away at camp right now and I know they are looking to make the most of their summer before it's time to get back to homework, projects, and presentations. And just like them, I also want to enjoy the summer and the lovely weather. But even in the warmest and seemingly slow news-cycle periods, great traders are assessing the market and finding opportunities - making the most of their summer.
So I am doing just that. Just this week, I held the latest Trading Discipline webinar to a full and captive audience. Inflation and recession are on everyone's mind and I broke down my latest reading of the situation. The webinar went swimmingly as we debriefed the latest economic reports and levels and even identified two unique, top trades for the upcoming week. I encourage all YellowTunnel subscribed to check it out:
On the economic news front, four straight positive sessions came to an end on Friday behind a few disappointing economic reports and little else to offset the rally-stopper. Many investors this week began to wonder if the latest boost in the market was a timely rally in a bear market or the restart of the bull market. While I can see why some would be motivated to see this as a restart, I am not buying that narrative and likely, I believe, we are still in a bear market. But this should not discourage; there is plenty of space to still make advances during bear times.
Early earnings results have returned positively and cooled recession fears momentarily. Despite the fact that last month's CPI data showed a 9.1% inflation rise which added to the sense of economic pessimism, market reaction to recent employment, retail, and now earnings news has been favorable.
Netflix and Tesla earnings this week were certainly high marks as shares boomed following strong results. Next week's corporate earnings will also be plentiful with Microsoft, Google, Visa, Coca-Cola, and McDonald's releasing next Tuesday, while Apple, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Boeing, Qualcomm, MasterCard, and Pfizer will round the week in headline reports.
Next week will also feature the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where another rate hike is expected. As I previously mentioned, investors are focusing on the latest bull run and the upcoming week's release-heavy schedule and wondering whether a bull market might develop. In my eyes, I do not believe the stock market will continue to climb, just as we saw on Friday, and this rally is nothing more than a bear market rally.
To this point, I can’t emphasize how vital it is for blog readers and members of the Yellow Tunnel community to keep referring to our Live Trading Room so as to maintain a close tie of how our AI platform is navigating us in and out of select trades. It’s FREE and I want highly encourage everyone to sign up to the Live Trading Room and keep checking in throughout the trading day.
Every Monday and Wednesday, I highlight my best strategies via the DISCORD server and in our live trading meeting room. It’s the future of bringing together a trading community’s total services, educational products, live chat venues, support, news, how-to tutorials, webinars, live-trading demonstrations, and tons of market analysis. It is incredibly interactive and full of crucial and timely information. Just go to:
I also want to emphasize to traders how vital a stop-loss discipline is to winning and being successful in an unforgiving market. We employ specified stop-loss strategies with every trade. The buy and sell programs controlled by high-frequency related algorithms can create great profits or cause sudden losses, so it is imperative to maintain an element of controlling risk with each trade.
CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE
As of Friday, the 5-day chart shows the $SPY was trading 1.48% higher, near $394, and above the key long-term support – $380. While dropping off to end the week, S&P 500 was able to mostly hold its weekly gains. Oil traded slightly lower to end the week while gold moved higher.
The $DXY traded lower on Friday, near the $106 level and $TLT traded higher throughout the week and continued to do so on Friday, near the $118 level.
Taking the latest levels, I expect the short-term rally to continue in August but the bear market to resume downward momentum into September, possibly as late as October.
Specifically, I am seeing the pullback in the dollar as a key indicator and supporter of a short-term rally in the cyclical and commodities sectors. The 20-year high the dollar recently hit, compounded with its pullback, should provide fuel for a short-term rally in the next two to four weeks.
The recent rally should be capped by a lack of capitulation, and the aggressive interest rate tightening by the Fed due to rising inflation will eventually bring it to an end - likely near the 410-420 level for the SPY. Along with this, there is record bearish sentiment among retail and professional traders which will support any short-term rally.
Also impacting this opinion is the European Central Bank decision which happened on Thursday. The ECB hiked all rates by 50 basis points, essentially helping indebted countries while inflation remains high. Next week, the U.S. Fed will also come to a monetary policy decision which can spark additional volatility in the market.
I believe this is a short-term rally and the bear market will likely resume. I encourage users not to chase the market and buy on pullbacks.
Keeping this in mind, I'd be a seller into the rally and have a NEUTRAL portfolio right now. The market is currently overbought, and it is on the verge of top building.
The "BUY" signal based on the Aggressive Power Trader Portfolio is at the $380 and then $372 level using SPY and the "SELL" signal is at $396 and then $409.
Consider selling premium if you're trading options. November and December expiration dates are ideal for selling premium.
NEW EARNINGS POWER TRADER SERVICE
We recently launched our new Earnings Power Trader service that we at Yellow Tunnel are very excited about. Each week, our expert traders use our AI Tools to provide the Top Bullish and Bearish Stocks, each with an Entry Price, Target Profit, and Stop Loss.
This new service is special because it offers real-time alerts via SMS and access to Vlad's live positions and orders. When I put together this system, I wanted to be in the fight with other investors. That’s why I don’t play on your emotions to sell newsletters - I put my money where my mouth is.
Every trade recommendation that I make using this system – comes straight from the list of trade recommendations I use myself.
Not only that but every trade I make is logged in detail for you to review at any time. You can see my entire trading history, updated LIVE so that you can see, learn from, and even copy my trading strategy. Click here to learn more.
Signals have historically averaged over 85% accuracy in my live trading since inception. Sometimes we hold positions for 2-5 days by using options (selling OTM Calls and Puts spread) and targeting 1% target gain and 1% stop loss using stock price. The green color should be interpreted as a bullish signal and the red as a bearish signal.
How To Use Our Signals
Once you become a member, I encourage you to review our Live Trading Room recordings to see how I trade Aggressive Power Trader signals in my account. A snapshot of how we produce our Live Trading Room Sessions shows how we pack in a lot of information that can be accessed from whatever device you’re driving.
As a reminder, consider buying near the "BUY" level with a "10 days prediction" higher than the close price. In our live trading room, I usually hold a position for 1-2 days.
I allocate less than 5% of my portfolio if the position is being held overnight. On average, less than 1% of the portfolio should be at risk if you own a position for less than one day.
I enter a position at the predicted LOW (BUY) price or yesterday's close price. My stop loss is 1% and my target gain is 1% of the stock price. I target 75% accuracy using these signals.
Few subscribers asked about Options trading using the signals provided. Please review live trading room recordings. I often sell OTM credit put spread using weekly options and collect 0.5% using stock price. For example, if the stock is trading at $100, I would sell an OTM Put (strike less than 100) with an option BID price close to $0.5.
Apple to announce its
Last earning season, I traded APPL on April 28th, and I had a 34.6% return on risk.
Let me repeat that, we had a 34.6%** return on risk!
That's a pretty good return after holding the position for only 1 day!
Be prepared: Apple (APPL) is scheduled to announce its earnings on July 28th.
This is my favorite time of year! Join me on the trading floor as we trade live.
Founder and Chief Investment Officer
Looking at the report-heavy week coming up, I am picking a sector I believe can benefit the most from the short-term rally that is likely here for a few more weeks. With cyclical and commodities finding nice upward momentum, this sector is keen on moving parallel to such trends. Even with likely volatility ahead of us, as the Fed readies another hike, I believe this sector has the right criteria to pop.
Metals and mining are set for short-term success despite any volatility that may come. No better ETF tracks this sector than the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME.) This premier ETF is composed of aluminum, coal, copper, mining, gold, precious metals, silver, steel, and minerals. The fund is rebalanced quarterly and is equal-weighted and adjusted.
Although XME is down on the week, as well as the year, the ETF's Seasonal Chart offers a glimpse at the potential we are seeing. Keying in on the 30-day forecast and the gap currently presented between annual seasonal data and current prices illuminate a time frame for this sector to make waves.
TRADE OF THE WEEK
Metals and Mining's likely boom brings me to one of my favorite symbols in this sector: Freeport-McMoRan Inc., (FCX.) Based in Arizona, this mining company put together a string of quarterly earnings which topped estimations going back as far as Q3 last year. After releasing its latest report on Thursday, shares dropped off as the company missed estimates and revenue. But no fear here, FCX has produced impressive rebounds in the past - and this situation seems like another such opportunity.
Over the last five days, FCX gained almost 3% but fell off to end the week behind the underwhelming Q2 earnings data. Plugging FCX into my A.I. arsenal I am seeing several signs I like.
Just like XME, the FCX seasonal chart shows a near-term path for a spike. Four out of the five-time ranges are flashing a forecast that will likely go higher and this latest dip in price just offers us an even better entry.