📈Technology Broke Through Resistance— $NVDA& Earnings Fuel Next Leg
I Went To A RÜFÜS DU SOL Concert And Survived
My wife asked me last week, “Do you want to go to RÜFÜS with the girls?” I said yes before I even knew what RÜFÜS was.
I have now learned that RÜFÜS DU SOL is not a guy named Rufus. It’s three guys from Australia who make electronic music that makes 20,000 people sway in unison like seaweed. It’s not quite techno, not quite house, but whatever it is, it is not what I normally listen to on my drive to the office.
But my two oldest daughters, Becki and Maya, plus my wife, all wanted to go. And after the bat, the ER, the 106 fever, and the whole bacteria-in-the-blood adventure, I was in a stage where if my kids want to spend time with me, the answer is yes. Even if it’s techno at 95 decibels.
We went to the outdoor show in Milwaukee, which featured a big stage and lights everywhere. I walked in and immediately realized two things. First, I was the oldest man in a 50-foot radius. Second, I understood very quickly what condition you have to be in to truly enjoy this concert, at least if you are 19. Let’s just say a lot of the teenagers around us were very hydrated, very smiley, and very not worried about work on Monday.
I, on the other hand, was still on antibiotics from last week. No beer, no wine, not even a sip. Just water and a lot of standing. My wife kept checking on me, asking, “Are you okay? Do you need to sit?” I told her I was fine. I was pretending to be a cool dad, which is a full-time job at a RÜFÜS show when you are 51.
The first song started with this slow build, lights low, bass thumping in your chest. Becki looked at me and yelled, “Just feel it!” Maya was already dancing. My wife, who actually likes this kind of music more than I do, closed her eyes and started moving. I stood there for about 30 seconds trying to find the beat, then gave up and just swayed. That’s my dance now. The dad sway.
Honestly, I knew nothing about the artist. I couldn’t have named one song before that night. But watching my daughters know every word, every drop, every light cue, was worth it. Becki had her arm around Maya, and they were singing to each other. My wife was laughing at me trying to keep up. At one point Maya grabbed my hand, pulled me into their little circle and said, “Come on, Dad.”
I have taken them to a lot of places: basketball games, fishing in Eagle River, Blackberry Farm for yoga that I still don’t understand. But this was different. This was their world. Dark, loud, lights flashing, thousands of kids all feeling the same thing at the same time. I was a visitor, but I was an invited visitor.
Halfway through, I stopped worrying about whether I liked techno. I liked being there. I liked that Becki, who lives in the West Loop and is busy with her own life, still wants to go to a concert with her dad. I liked that Maya, who is back in her new apartment at U of I and stressed about accounting and Deloitte, could just let go for a night. I liked that my wife was next to me, also pretending we were 25 again.
We left hoarse, ears ringing, shoes dusty. The girls were on a high. I was tired, sober, and still slightly confused about what RÜFÜS stands for, but happy.
I didn’t have a beer because of the antibiotics. I didn’t need one. The opportunity to spend three hours with my two oldest daughters and my wife, to be the guy who says yes to the concert he knows nothing about, and to pretend for one night that I am still a cool dad, was more than enough.
Would I go again? If they ask, absolutely. I’ll even practice my sway.
And strangely enough, there was a little trading lesson buried somewhere in all that bass.
For the first few songs, I kept trying to figure everything out. Where was the beat going? When was the drop coming? Why did everyone around me seem to know exactly what was about to happen except me? Eventually I realized I didn’t need to predict every move to enjoy where things were going.
Markets can feel a lot like that, especially right now. Every week brings another headline, another inflation report, another move in Treasury yields, another Fed comment, another geopolitical scare. Traders can exhaust themselves trying to anticipate every twist before it happens.
But underneath all that noise, the market still has a rhythm. Stocks remain near record highs, volatility remains relatively subdued, corporate earnings are strong, and AI continues to provide real fundamental support. At the same time, inflation, elevated interest rates, tariffs and geopolitical risks remind us that the next move will not always be obvious.
The lesson isn’t to ignore those risks. It’s to stop believing we have to predict every single beat. Know the bigger trend, manage the risk when the tempo changes, and don’t let every flash of light or burst of noise knock you out of position.
Sometimes you just have to find the rhythm, trust your process, and keep swaying.
Recent Trade Review: Merck & Co. (MRK)
Last week, I highlighted Merck & Co. (MRK) after our Dynamic Power Trader (DPT) model identified the pharmaceutical giant as a long opportunity. Merck has been an interesting name within healthcare, a sector that has offered opportunities for traders looking beyond the technology and AI stocks that continue to dominate the headlines.
As always, identifying the opportunity is only part of the trade. Knowing when to get in, when to manage the position, and when to get out can be just as important. That becomes especially relevant in a market like this one, where stocks remain near record highs but individual names and sectors can move quickly as investors react to inflation, interest rates, earnings and changing expectations for the Federal Reserve.
That is also one of the major differences between our free analysis and paid services such as DPT. Subscribers don't simply see stocks that our models find attractive. They receive real-time SMS and email alerts with our entry and exit signals, helping them follow the trade as the opportunity develops rather than trying to determine the timing on their own.
You can see how we approached the MRK trade and watch last Thursday's Live Trading Room session here:
Watch the Live Trading Room recording
The MRK trade is another reminder of something I emphasize frequently: finding the right stock matters, but having a disciplined plan for what to do after you find it matters even more. In a market filled with conflicting signals, we want the model to help identify the opportunity and our trading plan to determine how we act on it.
Current Trading Landscape
Markets are ending another eventful week near record territory, with the VIX around 15 and the bulls continuing to withstand a growing list of macroeconomic risks. The S&P 500 remains supported by strong corporate earnings and extraordinary investment in artificial intelligence, but underneath the surface the environment has become more complicated. Inflation remains sticky, Treasury yields are elevated, the Federal Reserve is signaling that its job may not be finished, and geopolitical and trade tensions continue to threaten the otherwise constructive backdrop.
The biggest positive catalyst this week came from Nvidia (NVDA). The company delivered another strong quarter and reinforced the argument that the AI infrastructure boom still has considerable room to run. Data-center demand remained exceptional, while Nvidia's outlook pointed toward continued rapid growth as hyperscalers and corporations invest aggressively in AI infrastructure. Strength also spread across other technology names, helping the Nasdaq and broader market rally following the report. Salesforce added to the optimism with strong AI-driven results, reinforcing the idea that the AI story is increasingly extending beyond semiconductor companies and into enterprise software.
That earnings strength is one of the major reasons stocks have been able to absorb so much uncertainty. Investors are not simply betting on easier monetary policy anymore. Corporate profits, particularly in technology, are providing genuine fundamental support. As long as earnings continue to justify elevated valuations, investors have been willing to look through many of the risks developing elsewhere in the economy.
The Federal Reserve, however, remains the biggest challenge to that bullish argument. July's PCE inflation report showed headline inflation running at 3.7% year over year and core PCE at 3.3%, reinforcing the idea that inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% objective. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to emphasize that inflation progress has stalled and that policymakers still have work to do. His comments increased expectations that the Fed could tighten policy again if inflation remains persistent and the labor market holds up.
That brings the Treasury market back into focus. The 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade in a volatile 4.0% to 4.8% range, while longer-dated yields remain historically elevated. The Treasury's decision to expand its long-term bond buyback program has helped calm some of the recent volatility, but it does not eliminate the underlying concerns surrounding inflation, heavy government borrowing and fiscal policy. For equities, another uncontrolled move higher in long-term yields could pressure valuations, particularly in the growth stocks that have led the market higher.
The economic data are also sending mixed signals. Second-quarter GDP was revised down to a 1.5% annualized pace, while consumer confidence has softened and portions of the retail sector are beginning to show signs of pressure. Lower-income households appear increasingly sensitive to higher prices, even as higher-income consumers remain relatively resilient. At the same time, weekly jobless claims remain contained and recent business-activity readings suggest that the economy is far from falling into a broad contraction. Growth is slowing, but so far it is not collapsing.
Geopolitics remain another source of uncertainty. Continuing tensions between the United States and Iran have kept oil prices volatile, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a potential flash point for global energy markets. Any sustained oil spike would quickly feed back into inflation expectations and potentially complicate the Fed's policy decisions. Trade tensions are also returning to the conversation as tariff threats between the United States and Canada add another potential source of higher costs.
Despite all of these risks, the market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. Stocks remain near their highs, volatility remains subdued, earnings are strong and AI investment continues to provide a powerful growth engine. That keeps me firmly in the MARKET BULLISH camp, although this is not an environment where investors should become complacent.
The biggest risk continues to be interest rates remaining higher for longer. Persistent inflation could force the Fed to maintain restrictive policy or tighten further, while another sharp increase in Treasury yields could challenge current equity valuations. Oil, tariffs and geopolitical developments remain additional risks, but for now the long-term market trend remains intact.
Looking ahead, next Friday's August employment report could become the next major test. After recent signs of labor-market weakness, investors will be watching payroll growth, unemployment and wages closely for clues about the Fed's September decision. ISM data, JOLTS, ADP and another important round of corporate earnings should provide additional evidence about whether economic growth and AI-related spending remain strong enough to support the rally.
For the next several months, I continue to believe SPY can rally toward the $760 to $780 range, with the $700 to $720 area representing important support. Until the evidence tells us otherwise, the larger trend remains bullish. The key is recognizing that the path higher is unlikely to be smooth. With inflation, rates, geopolitics and earnings pulling markets in different directions, disciplined risk management remains just as important as identifying the trend.
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Sector Spotlight: Technology (XLK)
This week, I am turning my attention to the Technology sector, with a particular focus on the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK).
Technology continues to sit at the center of this bull market, and this week's earnings provided another reminder of why. While investors are confronting sticky inflation, elevated Treasury yields, geopolitical uncertainty and the possibility that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates higher for longer, the fundamental growth coming from technology remains extremely difficult to ignore.
Artificial intelligence continues to be the biggest driver. Nvidia's latest earnings demonstrated that spending on AI infrastructure is not slowing in the way some investors feared. At the same time, strong results from companies such as Salesforce and CrowdStrike showed that AI-related optimism is expanding beyond semiconductors into software and cybersecurity. On Thursday, the S&P 500 Technology sector surged 3.4%, easily outperforming the broader market as Nvidia, Salesforce and other technology stocks rallied.
That strength is important because this is no longer simply a story about investors paying higher valuations for the promise of AI sometime in the future. Companies are producing enormous revenue and earnings growth today, and AI infrastructure spending continues to translate into real business.
XLK provides concentrated exposure to that trend. Approximately 44% of the fund is currently invested in semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, with another 25% in software. Nvidia is XLK's largest holding at approximately 14%, followed by Apple and Microsoft. Broadcom, AMD and Micron are also among its largest positions.
There are certainly risks. Technology stocks are particularly sensitive to interest rates because higher yields can pressure the valuations investors are willing to pay for future growth. With inflation remaining above the Fed's target and the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to move within a volatile range, another sharp increase in yields could create pressure across the sector.
But that is what makes the current performance so notable. Technology is continuing to deliver despite those headwinds.
I remain in the MARKET BULLISH camp, and as long as corporate earnings remain strong and AI investment continues to accelerate, technology should remain one of the most important areas of the market to watch. The next major test comes next week with earnings from Broadcom and other technology companies, which should provide another look at whether AI infrastructure spending remains as powerful as Nvidia's results suggest.
For now, XLK remains one of the clearest ways to participate in the market's strongest long-term growth theme.
Trade of the Week: NVIDIA (NVDA)
Within technology, it is difficult to find a company that better represents the current market than NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA).
Nvidia entered this week's earnings report carrying enormous expectations. Investors weren't simply looking for another earnings beat. They wanted evidence that the extraordinary buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure still had room to run. Nvidia delivered exactly that.
Second-quarter revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, while Data Center revenue surged 117% to $89 billion. Nvidia also reported non-GAAP earnings of $2.22 per share and maintained a 75% non-GAAP gross margin. For the current quarter, management expects approximately $108 billion in revenue, plus or minus 2%. Those are extraordinary numbers for a company of Nvidia's size.
More importantly, the results addressed one of the biggest questions hanging over this market: Is AI demand beginning to peak?
So far, the answer appears to be no.
Nvidia's outlook reinforced expectations for continued aggressive spending on AI infrastructure. The company said its Vera Rubin platform is now ramping into full production, while demand continues across hyperscalers, frontier AI laboratories, startups and emerging physical-AI applications. Nvidia also projected roughly 70% revenue growth for its next fiscal year, substantially ahead of Wall Street expectations.
Investors responded immediately. NVDA surged 8.7% on Thursday, helping the Nasdaq gain 1.57% and pushing semiconductor stocks broadly higher.
That reaction matters beyond Nvidia itself. NVDA is now the largest holding in XLK at approximately 14%, meaning its performance has a meaningful direct influence on the technology sector.
There are risks here as well. Expectations for Nvidia are extremely high, and the company has acknowledged that memory-component shortages could constrain industry growth. Elevated interest rates also remain a potential headwind for high-growth technology valuations.
But Nvidia continues to do something very few companies can accomplish: grow rapidly enough to keep raising the fundamental bar underneath an already enormous valuation.
That is particularly important in the current market. The Fed may keep rates higher for longer. Inflation remains sticky. Treasury yields remain elevated. Oil and geopolitical tensions can create volatility at any moment. Yet despite those challenges, the S&P 500 remains near record highs, and second-quarter corporate earnings are on pace to rise roughly 33.5% year over year. Much of that strength continues to be driven by the enormous investment taking place around artificial intelligence.
Nvidia remains at the center of it.
Rather than trying to predict when the AI boom will eventually slow, I want to pay attention to what the numbers are telling us today. Right now, revenue is accelerating, Data Center demand remains exceptional, next-generation products are ramping, and AI infrastructure spending continues to expand.
That combination makes NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) my Trade of the Week and reinforces why Technology (XLK) remains one of my favorite sectors in a market where the long-term bullish trend is still intact.
This week, I am adding NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) to my portfolio.
And one more thing! Our track record speaks for itself from the standpoint of a Winning Trades Percentage, Average Return Per Trade, and Net Gain. Just take a look:
The consistent performance of our services is just incredible. My historical stellar performance is made possible by being right on 82.29% of all trades that I made, with an average profit of 39.80% per trade on our collective trade recommendations. To my knowledge, this trading performance is one-of-a-kind and stands alone in the marketplace for superior trading advice, where our numbers and results speak for themselves.
For the rest of 2026, the market is entering a more selective and demanding phase. On the surface, major indexes remain resilient, but underneath, investors are navigating a more complicated environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, uneven megacap earnings, sticky inflation expectations, and renewed pressure from interest rates. At the same time, labor market data is beginning to soften at the edges, creating a setup where discipline, timing, and data-driven decision-making are becoming more important than broad market optimism.
This is exactly where YellowTunnel becomes essential.
In a market where leadership is narrowing and volatility can return quickly, investors need more than headlines and guesswork. YellowTunnel’s AI-powered tools are designed to help you cut through the noise, identify high-probability setups, track changing market conditions, and stay aligned with the strongest pockets of opportunity. Whether you are looking for real-time trade ideas, advanced stock and options analysis, predictive market data, or a more disciplined trading process, YellowTunnel gives you the structure and clarity needed to act with confidence.
As conditions tighten heading into Q3, the difference between reacting emotionally and following a proven, data-backed approach can be significant. Our goal is to help you stay prepared, stay selective, and stay focused on the opportunities with the strongest risk-reward potential.
Whether you are focused on short-term trades, portfolio positioning, options strategies, or improving your overall trading mindset, YellowTunnel provides the tools, insights, and guidance to help you navigate this market with greater precision.
Let’s work together to make the rest of 2026 a stronger, smarter, and more disciplined period for your portfolio. As always, successful investing begins with informed decisions, proper risk management, and a clear understanding of your personal goals and risk tolerance before entering any trade.
One more thing, I've had the opportunity to take additional action with a great organization supporting families in Ukraine directly. Gate.org is a foundation where fundraising is held for specific families, allocating funds to multiple families currently living in Ukraine. I am on the board of directors for this great initiative and encourage everyone to check it out and donate if possible. The war in Ukraine is escalating, and families are being negatively impacted and displaced daily. To learn more about this initiative to help families, please see the link below:
Wishing you a week filled with resilience, growth, and prosperous opportunities!