💡Don’t Let Election + Credit Noise Distract You From This Setup
10 mm and Eight Days
I have a kidney stone. 10mm long. If you have never had one, that number means nothing. If you have, you know it means everything.
I was supposed to have outpatient surgery this past Monday. I had the whole thing planned — Monday procedure, rest Tuesday, back to normal life Wednesday. I even told David we would shoot hoops on Thursday. Then at 4 p.m. on Friday I got the call. Cancelled. Moved to next Monday.
So now I have eight days of waiting with a 10mm stone that has decided to make itself very comfortable exactly where it should not be.
If you have had kidney stones you know the pain. It’s not dull. It’s excruciating, comes in waves, and makes you rethink every life decision that led to you not drinking enough water. For two nights I could not find a position that worked. Sitting hurt. Standing hurt. Lying flat was the worst.
I learned a few things that actually helped. Yoga, of all things. Gentle stretching, not the power yoga from Blackberry Farm, just slow twists and breathing on the floor. Walking, short walks with our one dog around the block, not fast, just moving. And sleeping in zero gravity. We have an adjustable bed and putting it in zero gravity setting — knees up, back up — took pressure off my lower back and kidneys enough that I could finally doze off for an hour.
Pain management was its own journey. Advil worked way better than Tylenol for me. My doctor explained Advil is processed differently and for this kind of inflammatory kidney pain it can be more effective than Tylenol. But taking Advil for a long time can hurt your stomach, and my stomach started telling me exactly that after day three.
So we switched, with my doctor’s guidance, to Celebrex and Tylenol 3. That combination, plus yoga, walking, and sleeping in zero gravity, finally did the trick. Not pain-free, but manageable. Enough to sit at my desk, answer emails for Yellowtunnel, watch a little TV with my wife without pacing the room every ten minutes.
I am not giving medical advice here. If you are in this situation, call your doctor, go to the ER if you need to, don’t try to tough out a 10mm stone on internet tips. What worked for me was a mix of what my doctor recommended and what my body would actually tolerate for eight days.
Eight days is a long time to be in pain. It changes how you think. You stop planning next quarter and start planning the next hour. Can I make it to the kitchen? Can I sit through David’s chess tournament in my old high school gym? Can I sleep two hours straight? You learn to celebrate small wins. A walk without stopping. A night where you only woke up twice.
The lesson keeps repeating for me this year. From the bat in the house and 106 fever and bacteria in my blood to this — life can turn 180 degrees on a dime. One day you are on a pontoon in Eagle River catching walleye and telling your wife descaling is easy, the next you are counting days to Monday and icing your stomach because Advil tore it up.
Hopefully I can deal with the pain until this Monday. Surgery is back on. I am ready. My bag is packed, my zero gravity bed is waiting for recovery, and I have promised David I will be back on the driveway hoop, even if I still can’t raise my hands.
If you have never had a kidney stone, drink more water than you think you need. If you have, you know exactly what I’m writing about.
Recent Trade Review
This week, our Dynamic Power Trader (DPT) model identified a market-neutral trading opportunity in the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index.
With technology stocks facing heightened volatility from inflation, rising interest rates, and uncertainty surrounding Nvidia, our model identified an opportunity that didn't depend on predicting the market's next directional move.
I reviewed the QQQ trade during Thursday's Live Trading Room, highlighting how our models combine technical indicators, volatility analysis, and risk management to identify opportunities.
Dynamic Power Trader subscribers also receive timely SMS entry and exit alerts, helping them act on trading signals without constantly monitoring the market.
Watch the Live Trading Room Recording
Current Trading Landscape: Inflation, AI Volatility, and the Next Market Move
Wall Street continues to navigate a volatile environment as inflation, rising Treasury yields, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence weigh on investor sentiment. Despite these challenges, I remain in the MARKET BULLISH camp, with the longer-term uptrend still intact.
The market has experienced significant swings in recent sessions, reflecting the ongoing battle between resilient corporate earnings and growing concerns about economic conditions. While investors have shown a willingness to buy market pullbacks, rallies have struggled to maintain momentum as new economic data and corporate headlines reshape expectations. This environment increasingly favors selective stock picking rather than broad market exposure.
Inflation and Federal Reserve policy remain the biggest obstacles. October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4%, exceeding expectations, while Friday's Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a more modest 0.3% monthly increase. The reports reinforced concerns that inflation remains persistent and that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy or consider additional rate hikes.
The 10-year Treasury yield continues to fluctuate within a broad 4.5%–5.5% range, recently moving above 5%. Higher borrowing costs remain a significant risk to economic growth, corporate earnings, and equity valuations.
The Federal Reserve's next move will be particularly important for market direction. Investors are increasingly focused on the December policy meeting, with expectations shifting toward a more hawkish outlook. While the economy has demonstrated resilience, prolonged restrictive monetary policy could pressure consumer spending, business investment, and corporate profitability. The challenge for the Fed is bringing inflation under control without triggering a more pronounced economic slowdown.
Technology and AI stocks have experienced particularly sharp swings. Nvidia (NVDA) shocked investors with the sudden resignation of CEO Jensen Huang, sending shares lower and raising questions about leadership at one of the world's most influential technology companies. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected results from CoreWeave (CRWV) helped reinforce confidence in continued AI infrastructure spending, highlighting the growing divide between companies demonstrating strong demand and those facing valuation or financing concerns.
Although the AI investment boom remains a powerful driver of market growth, investors are becoming more selective about valuations and profitability. Companies are committing enormous amounts of capital to data centers, cloud computing, and advanced semiconductor infrastructure, raising questions about financing costs and the timeline for generating returns. I believe the long-term potential of AI remains significant, but the market is increasingly demanding tangible financial results rather than promises of future growth.
The aftermath of the midterm elections has added another layer of uncertainty, particularly around potential technology regulation and government policy. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions involving Iran have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, keeping energy costs and inflation expectations in focus.
These developments are also influencing sector rotation. While technology remains an important market leader, energy and other sectors have attracted interest during periods of weakness in growth stocks. This divergence reinforces the importance of monitoring market breadth and institutional money flows to determine whether a rally is gaining strength or becoming increasingly dependent on a handful of large companies.
From a technical perspective, the market is trading near its 50-day moving average, with the VIX hovering around 18–19. These conditions suggest heightened uncertainty, but not necessarily a breakdown of the broader bullish trend. A sustained move above key technical resistance, supported by stronger market participation, would help confirm renewed upside momentum.
My outlook for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) remains constructive, with a potential rally toward 780–810 over the next several months. On the downside, I'm monitoring the 740–750 area as initial support, followed by a broader 720–740 support zone should selling pressure intensify.
Looking Ahead: Key Catalysts Next Week
Investors face another important week, with several economic releases and corporate earnings reports capable of moving the market:
- Tuesday, November 17: Retail Sales and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings.
- Wednesday, November 18: FOMC Meeting Minutes and Housing Starts.
- Thursday, November 19: Initial Jobless Claims and Walmart (WMT) earnings.
- Friday, November 20: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Additional earnings from Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, and Palo Alto Networks will provide insight into consumer spending, enterprise demand, and the technology sector.
The bottom line: I believe the longer-term bullish trend remains intact, but investors should prepare for continued volatility as markets digest inflation data, earnings, and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
This is increasingly a stock-picker's market, where identifying companies with strong fundamentals, favorable technical setups, and institutional support will be essential. With recession risks rising and interest rates potentially remaining higher for longer, disciplined risk management should remain at the forefront of every investment decision.
At YellowTunnel, our focus remains on combining macroeconomic analysis, technical indicators, and model-driven trading signals to identify opportunities while managing downside exposure. Markets will always face uncertainty, but maintaining a consistent strategy and adjusting to changing conditions can help investors remain positioned for the opportunities ahead.
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Sector Spotlight
Technology remains one of the most important sectors to watch as Wall Street navigates renewed volatility, rising interest rates, and uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence. While recent selling pressure has shaken investor confidence, I believe the sector continues to offer attractive opportunities for selective investors.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, provides broad exposure to some of the market's most influential growth companies, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet. With substantial exposure to technology and AI-related businesses, QQQ remains an important indicator of investor appetite for growth stocks.
This week's sharp swings highlighted the challenges facing the sector. Nvidia's unexpected leadership transition rattled semiconductor stocks, while hotter-than-expected inflation data and the 10-year Treasury yield climbing above 5% placed additional pressure on technology valuations. Higher borrowing costs are particularly challenging for growth companies whose valuations depend heavily on future earnings.
However, the underlying demand for AI infrastructure remains strong. CoreWeave's latest earnings demonstrated continued appetite for computing capacity, while major technology companies continue investing in cloud infrastructure, advanced chips, and AI applications. The question is shifting from how much companies are spending on AI to how quickly those investments can translate into sustainable profits.
From a technical perspective, I'm closely monitoring QQQ's price action around its major moving averages, particularly the 50-day moving average, alongside trading volume and market breadth. With the VIX hovering near 18–19, additional volatility is possible, but stabilization in QQQ and renewed leadership among megacap technology stocks could help support the broader market's next advance.
My outlook remains cautiously bullish on technology, although I expect increased differentiation between companies with strong earnings and those relying primarily on future growth expectations.
This is also why flexibility matters. Our Dynamic Power Trader model recently identified a market-neutral opportunity in QQQ, demonstrating how traders can evaluate strategies beyond simply betting on higher stock prices.
As we approach another major round of technology earnings, particularly Nvidia's upcoming report, I'll be watching for renewed institutional buying, improving relative strength, and confirmation that technology leadership is broadening.
The AI growth story remains intact, but in this environment, selectivity and risk management will be just as important as identifying the next market leader.
Trade of the Week
My featured stock this week is Amazon.com (AMZN), a technology and consumer powerhouse that I believe is particularly well positioned to benefit from several important long-term growth trends.
While much of Wall Street's attention has centered on Nvidia and the semiconductor industry, Amazon offers exposure to artificial intelligence, cloud computing, digital advertising, and consumer spending. That diversification is particularly attractive in a market where inflation, rising borrowing costs, and uncertainty around technology valuations continue to create volatility.
Amazon's latest quarterly earnings reinforced the strength of its business. Third-quarter revenue increased 12% year over year to $201.9 billion, while operating income climbed to $28.1 billion, producing a record operating margin of 13.9%.
Even more impressive was the performance of Amazon Web Services (AWS), where revenue grew approximately 39% year over year, reaching $46 billion for the quarter. This growth highlights the strong demand for cloud infrastructure and AI computing, two areas that I expect to remain major investment themes.
Amazon also benefits from its established e-commerce and advertising businesses. With the holiday shopping season approaching, consumer spending trends and retail profitability could provide additional catalysts for the stock. A resilient consumer would further support the bullish case, particularly as investors assess whether the economy can withstand higher interest rates.
There are risks to consider. Amazon's aggressive AI infrastructure investments are placing pressure on free cash flow, while tariffs, inflation, and elevated interest rates could affect consumer demand and operating costs. The company expects approximately $220 billion in capital expenditures during 2026, making returns on those investments an increasingly important consideration.
From a trading perspective, I'm watching AMZN for relative strength against QQQ, improving momentum, and confirmation from our technical models. A sustained recovery in technology stocks, supported by stronger market breadth and stabilizing Treasury yields, could provide a favorable backdrop for Amazon.
I believe Amazon's combination of accelerating cloud growth, improving operating profitability, and diversified revenue streams makes it a compelling stock to monitor as the market searches for its next leaders.
The bottom line: AMZN offers exposure to the continuing AI investment cycle while benefiting from established businesses that generate substantial revenue. With the broader market facing uncertainty, I favor companies demonstrating real earnings growth and financial strength rather than relying solely on market enthusiasm.
This week, I am adding Amazon.com (AMZN) to my portfolio.
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For the rest of 2026, the market is entering a more selective and demanding phase. On the surface, major indexes remain resilient, but underneath, investors are navigating a more complicated environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, uneven megacap earnings, sticky inflation expectations, and renewed pressure from interest rates. At the same time, labor market data is beginning to soften at the edges, creating a setup where discipline, timing, and data-driven decision-making are becoming more important than broad market optimism.
This is exactly where YellowTunnel becomes essential.
In a market where leadership is narrowing and volatility can return quickly, investors need more than headlines and guesswork. YellowTunnel’s AI-powered tools are designed to help you cut through the noise, identify high-probability setups, track changing market conditions, and stay aligned with the strongest pockets of opportunity. Whether you are looking for real-time trade ideas, advanced stock and options analysis, predictive market data, or a more disciplined trading process, YellowTunnel gives you the structure and clarity needed to act with confidence.
As conditions tighten heading into Q4, the difference between reacting emotionally and following a proven, data-backed approach can be significant. Our goal is to help you stay prepared, stay selective, and stay focused on the opportunities with the strongest risk-reward potential.
Whether you are focused on short-term trades, portfolio positioning, options strategies, or improving your overall trading mindset, YellowTunnel provides the tools, insights, and guidance to help you navigate this market with greater precision.
Let’s work together to make the rest of 2026 a stronger, smarter, and more disciplined period for your portfolio. As always, successful investing begins with informed decisions, proper risk management, and a clear understanding of your personal goals and risk tolerance before entering any trade.
Wishing you a productive and profitable trading week!
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I’ve had the opportunity to take additional action with a great organization supporting families in Ukraine directly. Gate.org is a foundation where fundraising is held for specific families, allocating funds to multiple families currently living in Ukraine. I am on the board of directors for this great initiative and encourage everyone to check it out and donate if possible. The war in Ukraine is escalating, and families are being negatively impacted and displaced daily. To learn more about this initiative to help families, please see the link below: