JPM: Bank On This Trade

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Seller exhaustion that culminated in new lows for the market averages around June 10-11 has been offset recently with a rebound in some growth stocks, specifically big-cap software as some of the steam comes off the boiling inflation narrative. There is a fresh initiative on the part of bargain hunters to bid up growth stocks with little supply-chain risk in the event peak inflation is a reality, as this would be a real underpinning for the bulls if Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE) and other leading software stocks continue to trend higher.

Conversely, after outperforming year-to-date, energy and agriculture stocks are getting trounced, pulling back 20%+ in the span of just a few days. WTI crude rallied to $122/bbl on June 8, only to see it slide back to under $105/bbl as of Thursday. 

The same can be said for natural gas, wheat, corn, soybean, and fertilizer. These and other key commodities are under extreme selling pressure as the narrative of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions takes a firm grip on investor sentiment. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his hawkish rhetoric for a second day on Capitol Hill this week, which the market fully bought into as bond yields fell for a third straight session. 

Based on the price action of this week, commodity inflation peaked for now. It doesn’t mean there could be another round of higher prices, as that is always a possibility with a disruption in oil and gas production or drought conditions in America’s farmlands. But at present, the June inflation data should show a decline from that of May. One week doesn’t make for an intermediate-term trend, but prices are moving in the right direction. 

To this point, I can’t emphasize how vital it is for blog readers and members of the Yellow Tunnel community to keep referring to our Live Trading Room so as to maintain a close tie of how our AI platform is navigating us in and out of select trades. It’s FREE and I want highly encourage everyone to sign up to the Live Trading Room and keep checking in throughout the trading day. 

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The technical condition of the market is fragmented. Thursday’s session illustrates this where even as the $SPY and $QQQ are trading smartly higher, within the $SPY, only 4 stocks traded to new 52-week highs while 261 traded to new 52-week lows. As for the $QQQ, 36 stocks traded to new 52-week highs while 292 stocks traded to new 52-week lows. Leadership is very thin.

As of Thursday’s close, the $SPY closed higher 1.9%, at $378, below the key long-term support - $380. The value/reflationary ($VTV) closed lower 0.3%, at $130, right above the 52 weeks low. The technology sector ($QQQ) closed higher by 1.5%, at $281, right above the long-term support level.

The $DXY closed lower, near the $104.0 level, trading below the December 2016 high. The $TLT closed higher 0.8%, at $114, and facing the key long-term resistance. The ten-year yield closed lower at 3.10%, below the key short-term support. The $VIX closed lower, near the 29 level.  

The $SPY short-term support level is at $364 followed by $350. The SPY overhead resistance is at $383 and then $396. 

I would be a seller into the rally and have a NEUTRAL portfolio at this time. Short-term the market is oversold and undergoing the bottoming process.

"BUY" signal based on the Aggressive Power Trader Portfolio for tomorrow is at $369 level using SPY and the "SELL" signal is at $378 for short-term traders. 

If you are trading options consider selling premium with September and October expiration dates.  

Based on our models, the market (SPY) will trade in the range between $350 and $420 for the next 2-8 weeks.    


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Signals have historically averaged over 85% accuracy in my live trading since inception. Sometimes we hold position 2-5 days by using options (selling OTM Calls and Puts spread) and targeting 1% target gain and 1% stop loss using stock price. The green color should be interpreted as a bullish signal and the red as a bearish signal.

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As a reminder, consider buying near the "BUY" level with a "10 days prediction" higher than the close price. In our live trading room, I usually hold a position for 1-2 days. 

I allocate less than 5% of my portfolio if the position is being held overnight. On average, less than 1% of the portfolio should be at risk if you own a position for less than one day.

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Few subscribers asked about Options trading using the signals provided. Please review live trading room recordings. I often sell OTM credit put spread using weekly options and collect 0.5% using stock price. For example, if the stock is trading at $100, I would sell an OTM Put (strike less than 100) with an option BID price close to $0.5.


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Per my opening comments, if inflation is plateauing, traders should turn their attention to sectors that have been punished most from the “hard landing” rhetoric that has taken hold of the market narrative. Case in point, the bank sector has been crushed and trades at or near its 52-week lows. But if the reversal higher this past week in high-tech growth stocks is a canary in the coal mine, then this newfound optimism could easily spill over into the bank stocks. 

For traders that want to consider being early birds in this potential bullish rotation, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) offers an excellent way to cast a net over those leading bank stocks with the best fundamental and technical properties at this time. KBE is a unique ETF in that it is very diversified with the top ten holdings comprising only 13.1% of total assets and only three major money center banks as top holdings.

From a purely technical perspective, shares of KBE traded laterally during the past five trading sessions where a reversal in the protracted downtrend could be in the making. The week ahead will be more telling if KBE is in the very early stages of pivoting higher. 












When we apply our proprietary AI-powered Seasonal Chart to KBE, we get a very bullish series of “Higher” readings that confirms our technical conviction for this trade setup. 


Traders seeking a single-stock trade in the bank sector where fund flows will immediately show up if the sector gets attention should look no further than getting long JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM). As America’s largest money center bank, Dow constituent, and institutional favorite company, JPM is a true go-to stock if the sector experiences bullish capital flows. 

Looking at the 5-day chart of JPM we can see that after the stock plumbed a new 52-week low, it is trying to reverse higher and needs to clear $114.40 and then $117 to challenge the primary short-term downtrend line at $121. Just getting back up to this level offers traders a pretty attractive short-term return if the stock can put together a reversal in the week ahead.

Similar to KBE, when we apply the Seasonal Chart, to JPM, we get three near-term “Higher” probability readings for the next 20, 30, and 40 trading days off this reaction low. This is where we defer to our AI data which greatly helps to manage to be overly cautious. After all, for every seller of the stock, there is someone on the other side of that trade, figuring the bottom is in or is close to being in. 

This is where our AI tools are so crucial in determining precise entry and exit points. I’ll be looking to trade JPM this week on this pullback that will be one trade not to miss out on. It is one of the really great stocks to trade from the long side when short-term rallies are in the offing, even during protracted downtrends such as the present.

We tie our Tradespoon Live Trading Room to help you manage the current inflationary wave. And we update our closed positions daily. Our AI platform works seamlessly to provide our subscribers with the most robust trading experience available anywhere in the market today. 

The beauty of our AI-driven system is that we are always equipped to bring new trade ideas to our members. Trades in best-of-breed stocks and ETFs that are not yet recognized by the larger universe of traders. 

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Considering the volatile landscape of late, we’re taking advantage of market dislocation and valuation distortion. We’re striving to help our members ring the register all the time and this is why serious traders should not trade without checking in with market-proven AI tools. 

The consistent performance of our services is just incredible. Our historical stellar performance is made possible by being right on 85.01% of all trades that we made, with an average profit of 37.01% per trade on our collective trade recommendations. To my knowledge, this trading performance is one-of-a-kind that stands alone in the marketplace for superior trading advice where our numbers and results speak for themselves.