💻 AI Pick: Best Stock Post-Earnings

David Is Back — And We Finally Made It To Kawaga

He’s back. After a month in the Northwoods, David is home — sunburned, a little taller, and talking a mile a minute. And this time we actually did it: we drove to Wisconsin and picked him up ourselves.

For anyone who promised their kid they’d do Parents Weekend and then bailed last year, that was me. We said we’d come, work got in the way, and David ended up taking the bus home. He never complained, but the disappointment was obvious. So this year my wife and I packed the car on Friday, left early, and made sure there were no excuses.

Camp Kawaga in Minocqua is even better in person than he described. It sits on a peninsula, cabins tucked into the pines, basketball courts always full. You can feel the hundred years of history the moment you step onto the grounds. David gave us the full tour like a CEO — here’s where I do archery, here’s the volleyball pit, here’s the lake where we do the 7 a.m. cold plunge. I still don’t believe he does that voluntarily.

He showed us his two favorite spots: the fishing dock and the basketball court. He’s been fishing almost every day, mostly catch‑and‑release, and he’s been teaching his cabin mates how to shoot properly. Of course, the driveway rules followed him there — he said he was working on his defense without fouling, which means he’s been listening.

He also explained the point system, which I finally understand. I kept calling them “earning points,” and he corrected me. At Kawaga it’s all about Mawanda and Sachem — a merit system that goes back decades. You earn points for trying everything: swimming the bay, keeping your cabin clean, building something in the shop, getting a waterski miracle, improving in sports. Mawanda is the first big honor, 150 points over multiple summers. Sachem is the big one, 100 points in a single summer with a long list of requirements. He’s been grinding for Mawanda points all month, and he’s proud of every single one. It makes sense — it’s not about being good at one thing, it’s about showing up everywhere.

The best part of the weekend came out of nowhere. My wife looked at the lake — not Kawaga’s lake, but Eagle River, just a short drive away — and said, “Let’s rent a pontoon and fish.” No plan, no gear, just an idea. Two hours later we had a pontoon, three hastily bought rods from a bait shop, a cooler with sandwiches, and a lot of optimism.

We spent the whole day on Eagle River. Slow cruising, finding quiet coves, casting lines. David was our guide. “Cast over there, Dad.” “Reel slower, Mom.” And we caught fish. A lot of fish. Bass, walleye, little panfish that had David yelling like we’d hooked a shark. The sun was perfect, the water was glassy, and for a few hours there were no phones, no schedules — just us drifting.

I won’t forget that day. It was simple and perfect.

We brought a few fish home to Chicago, packed on ice. My wife, who has never scaled a fish in her life, decided she was now an expert. She fried them the next night with potatoes and a salad and invited her friends over to prove a point. She stood in the kitchen telling everyone that descaling a fish is easy and all the “doubters” should think again. I’ve heard this speech three times already. She’s already planning the next fishing trip.

David is back in the driveway now. The hoop is in use again. He’s still doing cold plunges — now in our shower — and he still hums those camp songs while he plays. He unpacked his duffel and laid out his Mawanda points sheet on the kitchen table like it was a report card.

This time we didn’t miss the bus. We saw the camp, met his friends, fished Eagle River, and brought home a kid who’s a little more grown up than the one we dropped off. Worth every mile of the drive.

And there’s a market lesson in that, too. Investors naturally focus on the immediate result — the winning trade, the missed opportunity, the stock that suddenly moves against them. Psychologists call this outcome bias: judging a decision solely by how it turned out rather than by the process behind it. But progress, whether it’s earning Mawanda points or building a portfolio, comes from showing up consistently, trying different things, and doing the small things correctly. You won’t catch a fish on every cast or profit on every trade. The goal is to keep making sound decisions long enough for the points — and the results — to add up.

Recent Trade Review:  Medtronic ($MDT)

Last week, I traded Medtronic ($MDT) through our DPT service after the model identified the stock as a long opportunity. We reviewed the setup during Thursday’s Live Trading Room session, where I explained the reasoning behind the trade and how we approached the position.

You can watch the recording here:

https://yellowtunnel.com/live-trading-room-recordings#live-trading-room-recordings

This trade also highlights one of the biggest differences between our free and paid services. Free users can review market forecasts and potential opportunities, but paid members receive timely SMS alerts showing when we enter and exit a position. That makes it easier to follow the trade as it develops rather than trying to determine the timing on your own.

With volatility rising and market leadership shifting, timely entry and exit signals can be just as important as identifying the right stock.

Current Trading Landscape

This was a week in which encouraging economic data and powerful corporate earnings were ultimately overwhelmed by renewed geopolitical risk and a sharp correction in the market’s most crowded technology trades. Softer inflation, resilient consumer spending and record bank profits reinforced the argument that the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound. However, the breakdown of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, another surge in oil prices and a widening semiconductor selloff caused investors to reduce risk as the week progressed.

By Friday’s close, the S&P 500 had lost approximately 1.6% for the week, the Dow had declined 0.9% and the Nasdaq had fallen 2.9%. The weakness was concentrated in technology and semiconductor stocks, while energy benefited from rising crude prices. Even after the pullback, the S&P 500 remained roughly 9% higher for the year and only about 2% below its early-June record, leaving the broader long-term trend intact.

I remain in the MARKET BULLISH camp. Over the next few months, I believe SPY can reach the $760–$780 area, while shorter-term support remains closer to $700–$720. The market is still being supported by earnings growth, continued economic expansion and long-term investment in artificial intelligence, but the path higher is becoming more volatile and increasingly dependent on interest rates, energy prices and individual company results.

The week began under pressure after the ceasefire between the United States and Iran broke down. Renewed attacks on commercial shipping and infrastructure around the Strait of Hormuz brought global energy supplies back into focus and pushed investors toward defensive assets. Stocks declined Monday as chipmakers weakened and fears of a prolonged conflict reduced broader risk appetite.

The market received a major source of relief Tuesday when the June Consumer Price Index came in softer than expected. Headline CPI declined 0.4% from May, its largest monthly drop since 2020, while the annual inflation rate slowed from 4.2% to 3.5%. Core inflation was unchanged for the month and eased to 2.6% annually, suggesting that price pressures outside food and energy were also moderating.

The CPI report temporarily eased fears that the Federal Reserve would need to raise rates at its July meeting. Treasury yields fell, growth stocks stabilized and investors became more optimistic that inflation could cool without a major deterioration in the economy. However, much of the improvement came from lower gasoline and energy prices during the earlier ceasefire, making the subsequent rebound in crude especially important.

Tuesday also marked the beginning of second-quarter earnings season, and the large banks delivered some of the week’s strongest results. JPMorgan reported a $21.2 billion quarterly profit, the highest ever recorded by a U.S. bank, as equity trading revenue surged and investment-banking activity rebounded. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo also reported higher profits, with trading, underwriting and corporate dealmaking providing significant support.

The bank results were an encouraging signal for the broader economy. Consumers and businesses are still borrowing, companies are returning to the capital markets and merger activity has improved substantially. At the same time, some bank stocks received mixed reactions because investors were already expecting strong numbers and remained focused on rising expenses, credit conditions and whether the current level of trading activity can continue.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh also testified before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. He emphasized that the Fed remains committed to returning inflation to its 2% target and warned against declaring victory based on one favorable report. Warsh avoided signaling how he would vote at the July 28–29 meeting, reinforcing the Fed’s data-dependent approach and leaving investors focused on each new inflation, employment and energy-price development.

Wednesday brought another constructive inflation report. The Producer Price Index declined 0.3% in June, its largest monthly drop in 14 months, as lower energy and goods prices offset continued pressure in parts of the service economy. Annual producer inflation remained elevated at 5.5%, however, showing that the inflation picture is improving but is not yet completely under control.

Financial-sector strength continued Wednesday when Morgan Stanley reported record revenue and better-than-expected profits. Investment-banking revenue increased sharply, equities-trading revenue reached a record $6.3 billion and the company’s wealth-management assets reached $10 trillion. Combined quarterly profit from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley exceeded $50 billion, reinforcing the view that Wall Street activity and corporate confidence remain strong.

Global economic data were less encouraging. China’s second-quarter economic growth slowed to 4.3% from 5% in the first quarter, missing expectations as weakness in property, domestic investment and consumer demand offset strength in exports. Slower Chinese growth remains a potential risk for global industrial companies, commodity demand and multinational earnings, particularly if the government does not introduce additional stimulus.

By Thursday, attention shifted back toward the health of the U.S. consumer and labor market. June retail sales increased 0.2%, while the underlying control group used in GDP calculations rose a stronger 0.5%. Initial unemployment claims fell to 208,000, below expectations, showing that layoffs remain limited and the labor market continues to operate in a relatively stable “slow hire, slow fire” environment.

Those reports were supportive for the economy but did not provide much help to technology stocks. TSMC reported a 77% increase in quarterly profit, yet its shares declined as investors questioned whether enormous AI infrastructure spending can continue growing at the same pace. The reaction showed that many semiconductor valuations had reached a point where excellent results were no longer sufficient—companies needed to deliver nearly flawless numbers and guidance to justify their stock prices.

The semiconductor decline accelerated into Friday. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell approximately 10% for the week and finished more than 20% below its June record, meeting the traditional definition of a bear market. The index remains more than 60% higher in 2026, so the move does not necessarily signal the end of the AI cycle, but it does show that leverage, crowded positioning and aggressive expectations can create sharp corrections even when the underlying businesses remain strong.

Geopolitical tensions added another layer of pressure Friday as the United States and Iran expanded attacks on infrastructure and shipping routes. WTI crude climbed 4.5% to $82.49 per barrel, while Brent rose 4.6% to $88.10. Energy was the only major S&P 500 sector to finish Friday higher as investors considered the possibility of extended supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

This creates an important conflict for the market. June CPI and PPI showed that inflation was cooling when oil and gasoline prices were falling, but the renewed energy spike could push transportation, manufacturing and consumer costs higher again. If oil remains elevated, the Fed may have less flexibility to support the economy, and businesses may face renewed pressure on profit margins.

Interest rates therefore remain the market’s largest structural risk. The 10-year Treasury yield finished Friday near 4.55% and continues to trade within a wide range of roughly 4.0% to 4.8%. Markets currently see a relatively low probability of a July increase, but expectations for a September hike have risen as several Fed officials argue that rates may need to move modestly higher if inflation does not continue cooling.

Looking forward, earnings will remain the primary test for the market’s bullish foundation. Alphabet and Tesla are scheduled to report Wednesday, while Intel and Texas Instruments will provide important updates on semiconductor demand and AI infrastructure spending. American Express, RTX and dozens of other S&P 500 companies will also report, giving investors a broader view of consumer spending, industrial demand and corporate profitability.

The market will also watch weekly unemployment claims, preliminary manufacturing and services activity and new-home sales. More importantly, investors will continue tracking oil prices and developments in the Middle East ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 meeting. A renewed decline in oil would support the disinflation story, while another sustained move higher could quickly push Treasury yields and rate expectations back up.

The bottom line is that the economy and earnings remain strong enough to support the long-term bull market, but the environment has become more selective. Investors are no longer rewarding every AI company simply for reporting growth, and strong earnings can still result in falling stock prices when expectations are too high. I remain bullish with SPY targeting $760–$780, but disciplined entries, timely exits and careful position sizing are increasingly important as the market navigates geopolitical risk, higher oil prices, volatile interest rates and a demanding earnings season.

 30% Overnight on $MS Earnings (GOOGL Reports July 22nd)

30% return. Overnight. On Morgan Stanley earnings.

Not a typo. Not backtested. Real trade. One night.

That's what our proprietary Earnings Power Trader system delivered on
$MS this week.

And it's not a one-off:

 Morgan Stanley($MS): 30% overnight
 Oracle ($ORCL): 52% overnight
 Micron ($MU): 220% overnight

 Average return per trade: 39%. Holding time: One day.

Here's what makes this different from everything else you've seen:

Most traders treat earnings as a coin flip. They guess. They hope.
They get crushed when volatility doesn't move their way.

We have a proprietary system that takes advantage of earnings volatility spikes.

Our algorithm analyzes:
 Volatility patterns - Pre-earnings spikes and post-earnings moves

 Positioning data - Where the market is leaning

Gamma exposure - Hidden leverage points most traders never see

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Sector Spotlight: Financials

Financials stand out as one of the market’s strongest opportunities as leadership broadens beyond technology. While semiconductor stocks struggled with stretched valuations and questions about the return on massive AI spending, the major banks entered earnings season with strong profits, rising trading revenue and a meaningful recovery in investment banking.

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ($XLF) provides diversified exposure to many of the largest U.S. banks, insurance companies and financial-services businesses. Its major holdings include JPMorgan Chase, Berkshire Hathaway, Visa, Mastercard, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, giving investors access to several different sources of financial-sector growth rather than depending on a single institution.

Second-quarter earnings reinforced the bullish case. The largest banks generally exceeded expectations as market volatility supported trading desks and renewed corporate activity drove stronger underwriting, advisory and investment-banking revenue. JPMorgan reported record quarterly profit, while Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley also benefited from improving capital-markets activity.

The sector is also supported by the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy. Retail sales remained positive, unemployment claims stayed low and consumer credit conditions have not shown signs of broad deterioration. That matters because banks perform best when businesses continue investing, consumers remain employed and credit losses stay manageable.

Higher interest rates create a more complicated backdrop, but they are not entirely negative for financial companies. A higher-for-longer environment can support interest income and lending margins, particularly when the economy remains healthy. The bigger risk would be a combination of persistently high rates and a sharp economic slowdown, which could weaken loan demand and increase credit losses. So far, the data point toward slower but continued growth rather than a recession.

Financials may also benefit from market rotation. Investors are becoming less willing to pay extreme premiums for crowded AI and semiconductor positions, creating an opportunity for capital to move toward sectors with strong current earnings, more reasonable valuations and direct exposure to economic activity.

For these reasons, I am bullish on $XLF. The sector offers a combination of earnings strength, improving capital-markets activity, resilient credit conditions and attractive relative valuation. As long as employment remains stable and the economy avoids a major downturn, financials have room to outperform as market leadership continues to broaden.

Trade of the Week: JPMorgan Chase ($JPM)

This week’s trade is a long position in JPMorgan Chase & Co. ($JPM), the largest U.S. bank and one of the strongest companies in the financial sector.

JPMorgan entered earnings season with exceptional momentum, reporting approximately $21.2 billion in quarterly profit—the highest quarterly profit ever recorded by a U.S. bank. The results were supported by strength across the company, including trading, investment banking, lending and consumer banking.

That diversification is one of JPMorgan’s greatest advantages. The company is not dependent on a single revenue stream. When lending activity slows, trading or investment banking can help offset the weakness. When market activity improves, JPMorgan’s scale allows it to capture a significant share of underwriting, advisory and trading revenue.

The recent recovery in capital-markets activity is particularly encouraging. Companies are returning to the debt and equity markets, merger activity is improving and volatile financial markets have created favorable conditions for JPMorgan’s trading operations. These trends provide additional earnings growth beyond the company’s traditional consumer and commercial banking businesses.

JPMorgan also benefits from one of the strongest balance sheets and deposit franchises in the industry. Its scale, liquidity and risk-management capabilities allow it to compete aggressively while remaining better positioned than many smaller banks to manage changes in interest rates, regulation and credit conditions.

The broader economic backdrop supports the trade. Consumer spending remains resilient, unemployment claims are low and there is little evidence of widespread credit stress. Although higher-for-longer interest rates remain a risk for the overall market, JPMorgan is positioned to generate substantial income from its lending and securities portfolios while rates remain elevated.

There are still risks to monitor. A severe economic slowdown could increase loan losses, falling interest rates could eventually pressure lending margins, and geopolitical or oil-related inflation could create additional market volatility. JPMorgan’s strong capital position and diversified business model, however, make it one of the financial companies best equipped to navigate those conditions.

With record earnings, improving investment-banking activity, strong trading performance and continued economic resilience, JPMorgan offers one of the clearest ways to participate in financial-sector strength. The company combines current profitability with long-term competitive advantages, making $JPM our Trade of the Week.

This week, I am adding JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) to my portfolio.

And one more thing! Our track record speaks for itself from the standpoint of a Winning Trades Percentage, Average Return Per Trade, and Net Gain. Just take a look:

The consistent performance of our services is just incredible. My historical stellar performance is made possible by being right on 82.30% of all trades that I made, with an average profit of 39.66% per trade on our collective trade recommendations. To my knowledge, this trading performance is one-of-a-kind and stands alone in the marketplace for superior trading advice, where our numbers and results speak for themselves.

For the rest of 2026, the market is entering a more selective and demanding phase. On the surface, major indexes remain resilient, but underneath, investors are navigating a more complicated environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, uneven megacap earnings, sticky inflation expectations, and renewed pressure from interest rates. At the same time, labor market data is beginning to soften at the edges, creating a setup where discipline, timing, and data-driven decision-making are becoming more important than broad market optimism.

This is exactly where YellowTunnel becomes essential.

In a market where leadership is narrowing and volatility can return quickly, investors need more than headlines and guesswork. YellowTunnel’s AI-powered tools are designed to help you cut through the noise, identify high-probability setups, track changing market conditions, and stay aligned with the strongest pockets of opportunity. Whether you are looking for real-time trade ideas, advanced stock and options analysis, predictive market data, or a more disciplined trading process, YellowTunnel gives you the structure and clarity needed to act with confidence.

As conditions tighten heading into Q3, the difference between reacting emotionally and following a proven, data-backed approach can be significant. Our goal is to help you stay prepared, stay selective, and stay focused on the opportunities with the strongest risk-reward potential.

Whether you are focused on short-term trades, portfolio positioning, options strategies, or improving your overall trading mindset, YellowTunnel provides the tools, insights, and guidance to help you navigate this market with greater precision.

Let’s work together to make the rest of 2026 a stronger, smarter, and more disciplined period for your portfolio. As always, successful investing begins with informed decisions, proper risk management, and a clear understanding of your personal goals and risk tolerance before entering any trade.

One more thing: I've had the opportunity to take additional action with a great organization supporting families in Ukraine directly. Gate.org is a foundation where fundraising is held for specific families, allocating funds to multiple families currently living in Ukraine. I am on the board of directors for this great initiative and encourage everyone to check it out and donate if possible. The war in Ukraine is escalating, and families are being negatively impacted and displaced daily. To learn more about this initiative to help families, please see the link below:

 www.gate.org

Wishing you a week filled with resilience, growth, and prosperous opportunities!